September vehicles sales nationwide predicted to drop almost 30%

Edmunds.com is forecasting that September auto sales will be down 29.9% from September 2008 and 41% lower than the Cash-for-Clunkers bonanza in August 2009.

The company, closely watched as the leading online source for auto industry info, says the September “Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate” (SAAR) will be 9.34 million, down from 14.06 million in August. (The SAAR is an indication of how many vehicles would be sold in a year if based on sales in a referenced month.)

“The aftereffects of Cash for Clunkers are being felt in two ways: first, a significant number of September sales were pulled ahead into August, and second, the low inventories and often higher prices give shoppers few reasons to buy,” Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl said in this statement. “However, in the last half of the month we have seen that sales are gaining momentum, so there is room for a small upside surprise on sales announcement day. In addition, September sales are being buoyed by leftover clunker deliveries.”

Michelle Krebs, senior analyst at Edmunds.com, noted that September 2009 also is different from September 2008 in that vehicle sales began to fall in late September 2008 following the Lehman Brothers collapse and broad national awareness of the troubles with major banks.

“This September sales were weak early in the month due to the Cash for Clunkers hangover and now are reaching a more normal – at least for these times – equilibrium. So, the trajectory of sales is more positive than a year ago,” Krebs explained.

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is estimated to be 42.8% in September 2009, down from 53.2% in September 2008 and up from 41.1% in August 2009, according to Edmunds.com.

Following are estimated sales details among the top 5 car companies (based on sales volume).

Chrysler — 55,000 units in September 2009, down 48.7% compared to September 2008 and down 40.7% from August 2009.

Ford — 110,000 units in September 2009, down 9.7% compared to September 2008 and down 38.6% from August 2009.

GM — 152,000 units in September 2009, down 46.1% compared to September 2008 and down 37.8% from August 2009.

Honda — 89,000 units in September 2009, down 8.3% from September 2008 and down 45.1% from August 2009.

Hyundai — 48,000 units in September 2009, down 14.9% from September 2008 and down 51.9% from August 2009.

Nissan — 59,000 units in September 2009, down 1.1% from September 2008 and down 44.1% from August 2009.

Toyota — 130,000 units in September 2009, down 9.7% from September 2008 and down 42.1% from August 2009.