Export Orders Fall Behind for Heartland

The first half of 2001 saw export levels drop for the nine Midwestern states that are part of the Heartland International Business Index. Arkansas climbed out of the cellar in the second quarter through, rising to a rating of 43.2 from its first quarter rating of 25.

The index, a measure of international trade from the nine states, has now seen 15 straight months of stagnant international trade growth in the Midwest. Economists view Midwestern trade as a key component of the nation’s economy.

Every month, Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss surveys 1,700 purchasing managers at companies in Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and North and South Dakota. He establishes a trend line for their new import and export orders, and a rating of 50 indicates new growth. Anything below 50 indicates stale to decreasing trade.

Goss started the index in 1996, and it has become a snapshot of his national index that’s recognized by the U.S. Federal Reserve as a leading economic indicator. Goss prepares the Midwest version for the Heartland International Business Alliance — of which the International Trade Council of Northwest Arkansas is a member organization.

The overall Heartland index fell to 43 for June, or to “declining trade levels” according to HIBA Chairman Fred Baecher of Kansas City, Mo. That’s nearing an all-time low for the nine-state region’s index.

Only Oklahoma, Iowa and South Dakota rated a 50, indicating their trade is on the rise.