Author: Talk Business

by Talk Business - September 20, 2011 7:00 pm

Republicans Have Amazing Opportunity

The latest round of poll numbers released today by Talk Business are so positive for Arkansas Republicans that I cannot help but warn that they should be taken with cautious optimism. The only concern is that Republicans will see this data and believe the election is already fought and won, when in fact, it has hardly begun.  But there can be no doubt that state Republicans have the most clear opportunity to win the state legislature than at any time in Arkansas history.

This election cycle, Republicans have finally gained the generic advantage that has always been held by the Democrats.  This means that all other things being equal, Arkansas voters are more likely to pull the lever for the Republican candidate over the Democratic candidate.  The six-point advantage is significant with a large group of undecided voters.

The key swing in this poll is the shift in independent voters where Republicans hold an almost three-to-one lead. With this group, 31 percent prefer the Republican state legislative candidate while only 13.5 percent prefer the Democratic candidate.  In fact with independents, the Democratic candidate only holds a one point advantage over a third party candidate.

The key to remember here is that with about 14 months before the election there remains a large group of undecided voters still up for grabs – 31 percent overall and 43 percent of independents.  The challenge for Democrats will be to separate themselves from national politics during a year in which the Presidential election will dominate the headlines.  As reported yesterday, Arkansans disapprove of President Obama by a two-to-one margin.  Among the two-thirds of the state that disapprove, Republican state legislative candidates are preferred by 51 percent versus 8 percent for the Democratic candidate – that is an unbelievable six-to-one advantage.

The other significant finding is that the Tea Party is very favorably viewed in Arkansas with 41 percent having a favorable opinion compared to 37 percent unfavorable.  Again, among the key group of independents, the Tea Party is viewed favorably by 50 percent compared to only 30 percent unfavorably. The attempt by Democrats to paint Tea Party members as extremists has failed.

Republicans should take this as a much like a pre-season ranking in football. Right now, Republicans are ranked number one, undecideds are ranked number two, and Democrats are number three.  But this is a long season. Right now, candidate recruitment is the key.  If Republicans recruit top-notch, common sense conservative candidates who are well respected in their districts and adequately fund these candidate’s campaigns, there is no doubt they will achieve their goal of taking majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.

by Talk Business - September 19, 2011 7:00 pm

Judge Rules In Favor Of School Districts On Property Tax Lawsuit

Pulaski County Circuit Judge Tim Fox ruled today in favor of the Fountain Lake and Eureka Springs School Districts who had challenged the Arkansas Department of Education’s (ADE) ability to withhold property tax collections from the local districts. The withholding of property tax collected in accordance with the 25-mils URT (uniform rate of tax) revenue by the state was occurring in districts in which property taxes were collected above the "foundation" funding requirement amount set on a per student basis.  This was occurring in areas such as Hot Springs Village and Eureka Springs, where a high number of retirees without school age children lived, and accounted for an estimated $2.5 million last year.

On Tuesday, Fox enjoined the state from continuing to withhold this portion of the property tax from the local districts.

"The policy decision by the ADE is both well intentioned and well-reasoned, but it is an unconstitutional encroachment by the executive branch of a power that belongs to the legislative branch," wrote Fox in his ruling.

"In the present matter, the ADE is prohibited by the separation of powers from undertaking its present action. By specific statutory directive, the General Assembly has occupied the field concerning the distribution of the 25-mill URT revenues," continued Fox. " A.C.A. § 26-80-101(b)(1)(A) requires the Treasurer to remit the URT revenues to the ‘county treasurer of each county for distribution to the school districts in that county as provided by subsection (c) of this section.’ Subsection (c) unambiguously requires each county treasurer to ‘remit the revenues from the uniform rate of tax to each local school district from which the revenues were derived.’ The General Assembly has retained control of distribution of the 25-mill URT revenues."

The districts first sought a legislative remedy through HB1435 introduced by their state representatives, Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs) and Bryan King (R-Green Forest).  However, after opposition from the ADE and the office of Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, they were unable to get the bill out of the House Education Committee.  In addition, McDaniel upheld that ADE should withhold this amount in an opinion requested by King.

The ADE has 30 days to appeal Fox’s decision at which point it will go to the Arkansas Court of Appeals, but for now, the local school districts are enjoying the victory.

"I agree with and applaud Judge Fox’s conclusions regarding the separation of powers and how the ADE and executive branch’s attempt to take property taxes from the school districts in which they were collected is an unconstitutional encroachment of the legislative branch," said Westerman. "Throughout this ordeal, the ADE has been aided in their unfounded policy efforts by opinions from the Attorney General’s office. I hope the executive branch will uphold their oath to abide by the Constitution and abandon their attempts to illegally take money from local public schools."

Read the full ruling here.

by Talk Business - September 19, 2011 7:00 pm

Obama’s Negatives Spell Trouble For Democrats

No matter what positive spin Democrats in Arkansas may try to put on it, President Obama’s overwhelming negative approval ratings are a tough hill for Democratic candidates to overcome.

In our latest Talk Business poll, more than twice as many people disapprove of Obama’s job performance than approve for a negative rating of -32 (31.5/63.5.)  Only 5 percent of those polled have no opinion.

These high negatives are seen statewide with over 60 percent disapproving in all four Congressional Districts (AR1 29/64.5 – AR2 35/61.5 – AR3 30/66 – AR4 31.5/61.)

Perhaps the toughest news for Democrats is the fact that Obama has lost independent voters.  Among this group, Obama has a negative rating of -51.5 (22/73.5.)  It is almost impossible to win elections without this important group of swing voters.  Democratic candidates’ only choice will be to hope independents will split tickets when it gets down to the local level.

If there is a bright spot for the President, it is that he has not completely lost his base within his own party in Arkansas with a favorability rating among Arkansas Democrats of +46.5 (68.5/22).  In states such as West Virginia, his favorable number has dipped under 50 percent within his own party.

With numbers like this, it is no suprise that the two leading Republican primary candidates are well ahead of Obama.  Texas Gov. Rick Perry does slightly better than Mitt Romney leading Obama by almost 20 points.  Obama attracts around 34 percent against either candidate, but Perry draws 53 percent compared to Romney’s 49.5 percent.

It is the safest of all assumptions to say that Arkansas will vote for the eventual Republican candidate over President Obama in 2012.  But the largest question remains: How will this affect local Democratic candidates?

by Talk Business - September 18, 2011 7:00 pm

Passailaigue Out As Lotto Director

As reported in numerous media outlets this morning, Arkansas Lottery Director Ernie Passailaigue tendered his resignation on Friday. The Commission met in a lengthy executive session this morning where they accepted his resignation effective October 7.  Passailaigue gave no explanation, but the numerous missteps over the first two years of the lottery’s start-up have to be factors.

Although Passailaigue managed to get the lottery going quickly, that seems to be the primary achievement he can hang his hat on.  His tenure began with his controversial high salary and the hire of two high-paid lieutenants from South Carolina — their combined salaries totaling three quarter of a million dollars.  Passailaigue’s term was marked by numerous high-profile missteps, including a scalding audit report on their financial problems in the first year of operations, and most recently, a controversial vendor contract based on a percentage of revenue.

Fellow columnist at Stephens Media, John Brummett astutely notes that Passailaigue was equipped and focused on a quick start-up.  On the other hand, the day-to-day management of a state agency handling millions of dollars was not his strength.

"We are so pleased to have been able to have (Passailaigue) for the past two and a half years," Dianne Lamberth, chair of the Arkansas Lottery Commission, tells content partner KUAR this morning. She also said that the Commission had voted Julie Baldridge, Director of Public Affairs and Legislative Relations, as interim director.  They will began searching for a new director in the coming days. Baldridge will not seek the position as she plans to retire at the end of next year.

As for having their controversial days behind them, Lamberth sounded doubtful.

"I think we will always be controversial," said Lamberth. "I don’t think we will ever have a clean start. I think we will always be controversial because we deal with a lot of money and we will always be scrutinized and we do like the scrutiny."

Here is video from Passailaigue after an executive session from the Lottery Commission in January when they discussed the future of the embattled director.

by Talk Business - September 18, 2011 7:00 pm

Poll Shows Womack Most Popular Congressman

Talk Business released the first part of our latest poll Sunday night focusing on the job approval ratings of Arkansans four Congressman.  We will roll out different parts of the poll this week.