Political notes

Editor’s note: Dr. Williams Yamkam is a visiting assistant professor of political science at the University of Arkansas at Fort Smith. He graciously agreed to provide his perspective on this unusual election cycle. He can be reached at [email protected]

What would be the outcome of the upcoming midterm elections? Would the control of the U.S. Congress change from the democrats to the republicans? Would there be any change in the party balance in the Arkansas delegation to the U.S. Congress? These seem to be some of the questions that have been crystallizing the minds of many voters in America in general and in Arkansas in particular.

At their annual conference at the end of March 2010, American political consultants attempted, among other goals, to provide some elements of answer to the first two questions and forecast the political landscape in November 2010. Based on the latest data and the latest micro-targeting techniques to reach voters, American political consultants provided some insightful perspectives that could be used to answer the third question mentioned above.

One of the salient moments of the conference was a discussion panel featuring four (two Democrats and two Republicans) of the prominent political consultants of the nation. Stan Greenberg, pollster to former president Bill Clinton during the 1992 presidential campaign up until the 1994 midterm elections, and Mark Mellman, pollster to the current Democratic majority leaders of both houses of Congress, gave the Democratic perspective. Charlie Black, advisor to all Republican presidential nominees/presidents since 1980, and Ed Goeas, a very respected republican pollster, presented the Republican perspective.

Concerning the first question of what the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections would be, all four political consultants agreed that Republicans will pick up more seats in both houses of Congress and would be in a stronger position than they currently are. This uniform conclusion by Democratic and Republican political consultants might seem puzzling, but it is based on current data and on historical trends.

According to an average of major national polls as provided by Realclearpolitics, Republicans now hold a 0.2 point advantage over the Democrats on a generic congressional ballot. This is a far cry from the same period last year when democrats held an average of at least 8 points over Republicans. That’s a shift of 8.2 points in 12 months. What a difference a year can make!

To compound  the Democrats’ tribulations, historical trends as compiled by the American Presidency Project of the University of California at Santa Barbara suggest that except in rare occasions such as FDR’s Democrats in 1934 (+9 seats in the House and +9 seats in the Senate), JFK’s Democrats in 1962 (+3 seats in the Senate), Nixon’s Republicans in 1970 (+2 seats in the Senate), Reagan’s Republicans in 1982 (+1 seat in the Senate),  Clinton’s Democrats in 1998 (+ 5 seats in the House and status quo in the Senate), George W. Bush’s Republicans in 2002 (+ 8 seats in the House and + 2 seats in the Senate), the President’s party has lost an average of 3 seats in the Senate and 26 seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections.

Concerning the second question of whether the Republicans would gain control of the U.S. Congress after the midterm elections of 2010, the earlier symphonious agreement of our four political consultants shows some discordant notes.

Greenberg and Mellman argue that a rebound in the economy will limit the Democrats’ losses and help them maintain control of both houses of Congress.

“The results will not be as bleak as many people predict. … The positive change in the economy will limit the level of defeat for Democrats. … Democrats will lose seats but hold both houses of Congress,” Greenberg said.

Black argues that “Republicans will pick up a lot of seats nationally (in Congress, in state legislatures and in gubernatorial races). There is a 50/50 chance that they’ll take the House probably not the Senate, but anything is possible.” And Goeas contends that although Republicans will pick up many seats, they will fall short of taking control of any or both houses of Congress.

What can be deduced from these national trends to prognosticate the effects of the 2010 midterm elections on the party balance in the Arkansas delegation to the U.S. Congress? Based on many national and some local data, some prominent political analysts have gone out on a limb to forecast the outcome of the 2010 midterm elections in Arkansas.

Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, a political analyst with a strong record of accurately predicting the outcome of Congressional races for many decades, thinks Arkansas Democrats are in for a tough time this fall. As of April 11, he ranks the seat in the 1st District of Arkansas as a toss up, the 2nd District as “leans Republican,” the 3rd District as “safe” for Republicans, the 4th District as “likely Democratic” and he ranks the U.S. Senate seat held by Blanche Lincoln as a toss up.

In the same vein, Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and a well-respected national political analyst, rates the seat in the 1st District as “leans Democratic,” the 2nd District as “leans Republican,” the 3rd District as “likely Republican,” the 4th District as “likely Democratic” and the U.S. Senate seat as “leans Republican.”

Should the socio-economic and political environments stay constant and should the predictions of these political consultants bear out, it would mean the party balance in the Arkansas delegation to the U.S. Congress will change with Republicans increasing their share. From just one House seat (the 3rd District seat is held by Republican Rep. John Boozman who is running for the U.S. Senate) out of six seats (Arkansas has four seats in the U.S. House and two seats in the U.S. Senate), the Republicans will likely gain at least an additional seat in the Arkansas delegation to the U.S. Congress.

However, the predictions of these political consultants are mostly based on current polls which are all but a snapshot of voters’ feelings at a given time. We are still months away from the midterm elections. And as the old saying goes, in politics a month is more than a lifetime. Moreover, politics is not only science in which things can be predicted and explained with a certain accuracy, it is also art in that some imponderables such as the emergence of unforeseen events, the ability of a candidate to connect with voters, the ability of a candidate to self-destruct, etc., can alter the predictions of polls.

Nonetheless, barring a drastic change in the current political environment and based on polls and historical trends, it appears as if Democrats across the country and within the Arkansas delegation to the U.S. Congress (except for U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor who is up for reelection in 2014) will likely have a steep political hill to climb in the midterm elections this fall.

Now, the question that remains is this: Would American voters in general and Arkansas voters in particular buck the polls and historical trends to solidify the Democratic majority in Congress, or would they prove the polls and historical trends to be accurate and thus strengthen the Republican representation in Congress?

Let’s just wait and see.