Polls show Boozman, Lincoln ahead in primaries

Two recent polls show some trends in the Democratic and GOP primaries for the U.S. Senate race in Arkansas, with incumbent U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln (Democrat) and U.S. Rep. John Boozman (Republican) appear headed for a November showdown.

Lincoln faces Lt. Gov. Bill Halter and agribusinessman D.C. Morrison in the Democratic primary. Boozman is in an eight-person race in the GOP primary, with State Sen. Gilbert Baker of Conway and Jim Holt of Springdale showing the most strength against Boozman.

In mid-April, Roby Brock with Talk Business released poll results on each primary. The April 14 Talk Business Poll of 1,167 statewide voters showed incumbent Lincoln leading Halter 38% to 31% in the Democratic primary. The relatively unknown conservative candidate D.C. Morrison pulled 10% of the vote with 20% of Democratic voters undecided. The Lincoln campaign disputed Brock’s numbers, and went to the unusual measure to release internal polling showing Lincoln with a 51% to 34% lead over Halter, and Morrison netting just 3%. Also, the Lincoln poll showed 12% undecided.

An Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media poll released May 6 shows Lincoln with 44% of likely voter support, Halter with 32%, Morrison with 7% and 17% undecided. (The poll was conducted via phone interviews with 625 likely Arkansas voters, and for primary race questions, the phone interviews were conducted with 400 likely voters in each primary.)

Brock, a political analyst/reporter at TalkBusiness.net, former state Senate candidate and former head of the Arkansas Election Commission, said the numbers suggest a run-off in the Democratic primary.

“It’s still conceivable that she squeaks out a win without a run-off, but it will probably be by the smallest of margins if it happens,” Brock told The City Wire. “Bill Halter seems to have plateaued, but he’s much more competitive than his Republican counterparts toward their front-runner. D.C. Morrison again is a factor in this primary. If he receives 5% or more of the vote, his candidacy has the potential to throw this race into a run-off and he seems to consistently be breaking that threshold.”

On the GOP front, the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media poll has Boozman at 48%, Holt at 17%, Baker at 11% and none of the other candidates above 10%. The poll shows 15% undecided.

A Talk Business Poll released April 15 (conducted among 1,357 statewide voters) showed Boozman favored by 46%, Baker trailing with 14%, and Holt with just 8%.

“Jim Holt’s showing is the biggest surprise on the Republican side of this poll.  He and Gilbert Baker appear to be fighting for the potential run-off role,” Brock said of the Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media poll.

Brock provided other observations about the two polling cycles.
• “I think that these polls show similar trends we’ve seen developing for a few weeks.  John Boozman has a commanding lead in a crowded field of GOP candidates. When he entered the race, we thought he’d be the 800-pound gorilla and that certainly seems the case. As we noted before, conventional wisdom suggests that a run-off will happen in an 8-person field, but Boozman is flirting with taking the race without one.”

• “When the Stephens Media poll was released, they (Lincoln campaign) did offer comment that they felt she was in a strong position despite weathering attacks from outside interest groups. However, 44% for an incumbent in her party primary is not the position of strength you really want. I appreciate good spin, but the only good news in that poll is that she’s not behind in the primary.”

• “The races still have some solidifying to go. The undecided votes less than 2 weeks out will shrink closer to Election Day, but I think the trend lines we’re seeing will remain constant. Lincoln will continue to lead Halter and Boozman will maintain a sizable lead over his opponents. I don’t see those trends reversing before Election Day.”

“I do think the Senate race trends Republican right now, which the head-to-heads suggest. That’s just a reflection of the anti-incumbent mood in Arkansas. A Boozman-Lincoln match-up in the fall has a much different dynamic than a Boozman-Halter race. Boozman versus Lincoln will be a comparison of experience. Boozman versus Halter will be a completely different ball game.

• “The Democrat will start behind in that (general election) race, but as they campaign to voters with their sales pitches, in time, those numbers will make the race competitive, I predict. Plus, it’s a long way to November and you just never know what issues or events could alter the political landscape toward the general election.”