Early poll shows Lincoln losing to Boozman

U.S. Rep. John Boozman, R-Rogers, has not yet formally entered the race for U.S. Senate against U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., and already he has a big lead in a closely watched poll.

Public Policy Polling released survey results which show Boozman — who will exit his reelection race for Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional District to run for the Senate seat — holding a 56-33 margin over Lincoln. Possibly more depressing for Lincoln supporters is that the PPP survey shows State Sen. Gilbert Baker, R-Conway, defeating Lincoln by a 50-35 margin.

The PPP numbers also support trends from recent Talk Business Quarterly polling produced by Roby Brock with TalkBusiness.net. The most recent TBQ poll showed that Lincoln has a 57% unfavorable rating among likely Arkansas voters, and that 56% of likely voters disapprove of her job performance. Overall, Brock said the TBQ surveys have consistently shown: Lincoln’s overall popularity and job approval rating are declining; Lincoln’s support among her Democratic base is declining; Independents are siding with Republicans and against Democratic candidates; and, Arkansans have an extremely unfavorable view of Congress.

“While I think there is a lot of room for interpretation in these results as far as the spread between these numbers, they do reflect a trend that Lincoln is in trouble and the Republicans are in an advantageous position to capitalize on her vulnerability in the Senate race,” Brock noted in his report on the PPP survey.

The PPP survey said Lincoln’s support of the proposed Democrat health care plan is causing her to lose support from Arkansas conservatives who opposed the plan and also resulting in Lincoln getting heat from Arkansas liberals who say she has been too conservative on the issue.

“What it all adds up to is Boozman winning 89% of the Republican vote while Lincoln’s at just 68% with Democrats. And Boozman has a 66-20 lead with independents as well,” PPP noted in its report.

PPP also offered this on its survey: “And finally a word on sampling since I know these poll results will be a little shocking. Those polled reported voting for John McCain by a 17 point margin — he actually won the state by 20 points so that’s even a little charitable for Democrats. And the party breakdown of 36% Democrats, 32% Republicans, and 32% independents matches the 2008 electorate perfectly (even though we don’t weight for party.) So as surprising as these results may be we’re pretty confident they’re an accurate representation of current public opinion in the state.”