Holiday Shopping Looks Strong (Jeff Hankins Commentary)

As we move into the holiday shopping season, the economic outlook for Arkansas appears to be upbeat.

John Shelnutt, economist for the University of Arkansas at Little Rock Institute for Economic Advancement, and Jeff Collins, director of the University of Arkansas’ Center for Business and Economic Research in Fayetteville, both offered encouraging forecasts in recent weeks.

They agree on the prospects for continued job growth, increased personal incomes and more consumer spending. Collins says that if we will quit trying to compare everything to the late 1990s, we would be pleased with the economy’s performance.

Shelnutt says the growth and pace of economic recovery is modest and would be stronger if not for the rising energy prices.

His top business sectors for Arkansas in 2005: aerospace, trucking-related industries, auto parts, and equipment for medical, agriculture and construction fields.

Perhaps the best news is that we’ve stopped the major bleeding in manufacturing job losses. Even if net manufacturing employment in Arkansas is flat for the next two years, as predicted, that’s a big victory for our economy following four very difficult years.

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The events and parties surrounding the opening of the Clinton Presidential Library in Little Rock ultimately served a much larger purpose last week.

We showed the country a successful downtown renaissance, to which the library made a major contribution. Little Rock proved it to people from all over the world, but just as importantly we proved it to ourselves.

Tens of thousands of people showed up in the downtown River Market District on the night before the opening. They ate, drank, listened to music, rode the new trolley system (a much bigger hit than I imagined), watched for celebrities and generally marveled at the progress. Standing room only and lines out the doors of restaurants, bars and retail shops were order of the night. It felt pretty good to be part of it all.

I wasn’t in Little Rock for election night in 1992, but I’m told this was a different feel. Instead of all the activities centered around the Old Statehouse Museum, the center of activity was in the River Market business district that was just an eyesore of buildings 10 years ago. Those election night visitors from across the country would also be amazed at the transformation.

And at this point, virtually no one had even visited the library itself. Heck, Clinton wasn’t even the topic of discussion in most conversations on the night before the dedication.

While many people are glad to have the grand opening behind us, this is by no means the end. It’s the beginning of a new opportunity for tourism growth in Arkansas. The Clinton Presidential Center, Heifer International, the Arkansas Arts Center, the Historic Arkansas Museum and the Museum of Discovery combine to make central Arkansas a compelling destination.

I know that Hot Springs and Fayetteville really wanted to be home to Clinton’s library, but Little Rock was the right call and actually needed it the most to make the capital city a viable tourism destination. Hot Springs already had so much to offer for tourists and will still benefit from the Little Rock selection. Fayetteville has the Razorbacks as its main tourist attraction and couldn’t have delivered the impromptu visitors that Little Rock will get because of Interstates 30 and 40.

The restaurants, hotels and retailers in downtown Little Rock finally saw major payoff last week. Some had failed or bailed out on the anticipation. Doubt and skepticism about the future remains for some, but I expect them to be rewarded. Last week’s buzz had to have been encouraging.

(Jeff Hankins can be reached via e-mail at [email protected].)