Here?s to Better Days Ahead

What a year we’ve just been through.t

Abroad there was the war in Iraq that caused many of America’s allies to stand against the United States, creating ill feelings that still are present.

As the year ended, the United States at last captured Saddam Hussein, Iraq’s notorious dictator. Despite the nice Christmas present, American troops remain in harm’s way.

At home, the economic recovery finally started to feel real. Most areas are citing improvements except for jobs, but that too appeared to be ready to pick up at year’s end. The stock market has seen a nice rally since the Iraqi war.

Economic forecasters, such as The Conference Board, predict that real GDP growth will hit 5.7 percent next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the past 20 years.

With the capture of Hussein, an expanding economy and a campaign war chest the size of an elephant, President Bush seems poised for reelection, although a lot can happen between now and November.

Is the economic growth sustainable? Will Americans get tired of hearing how many American troops were killed each day? Those are big questions for Bush and his team.

Jobs could well be the biggest issue for Bush. Since March 2001, when the recession began, the U.S. economy has lost 2.4 million jobs — the largest sustained loss of jobs since the Great Depression.

Technology that continues to improve worker efficiencies is obviously behind some of those cuts as fewer workers are needed to maintain the same productivity levels.

And while the labor market, a major factor in any sustained growth, has shown only minor gains so far, The Conference Board said the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than 1 million new jobs next year. That won’t do much to help the unemployment rate, however, since the work force expands by about 150,000 people every month because of growth in the working population.

On the positive side, real consumer spending is forecast to increase at a 4.7 percent pace next year, up from about 3.2 percent this year. Another gain of 4.3 percent is predicted for 2005.

And real capital spending, up only 2.7 percent this year, is expected to climb 11.7 percent next year and another 8.6 percent in 2005 as business gets back on track. Corporate profits are expected to top $1 trillion next year and $1 trillion-plus in 2005.

If all of the positives come about, that will make it a happy new year indeed.