Realtor talks ups, downs of Alma-area housing market

story by Marla Cantrell
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Blake Rogers, owner of Jim White Realty in Alma, was happy to talk about the effects of the lackluster economy on house sales. He just had to find time between closings to do so.

“2009 has been the best year I’ve had personally,” Rogers said during a recent interview. “It’s not the best year as a company, but close to it.”

The 28-year-old Realtor isn’t denying the market has changed since 2007, when it was not uncommon to sell a $40,000 lot in Alma where a $250,000-plus home would be built. But when the economy started its freefall, buyers reconsidered just how much house they really needed.

“A lot of our builders changed what they were building,” Rogers said. “They were building bigger houses, many around 2,500 square feet. They stepped back and started building a little smaller.”

Rogers said 33 houses were constructed in Alma in 2007. That number dropped to 12 in 2008. In 2009, another 12 were completed. The 11 Realtors who work for Rogers watched as the market adjusted to accommodate a more conservative buyer.

“Anything under $150,000 has sold pretty quick,” Rogers said. “If they’re $120,000 or below, many have sold in the three or four day range as opposed to the three or four week range. That price range is really hot.”

Rogers estimates 30% to 40% of this year’s business can be attributed to the federal government’s $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, although he said most who came in looking were unaware the initiative existed.

The $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers, which was set to expire in November, has been extended through April. Another $6,500 tax credit is now available for homeowners who have lived at their present address for five consecutive years.
Those eligible for the tax credits must sign a contract before May 1, and must close on their houses before July 1.

Rogers thinks the extension will help the market, which is still skewed toward the buyer.

“One-hundred-thirty-six houses sold in Alma the last 12 months,” Rogers said. “There are 91 houses available right now, which makes it an 11.33 absorption rate.  That’s an eight month supply of houses.  Anything over 6 months is a buyer’s market.”

Rogers said certain niches in the market pan out differently. There is less than a five month supply of houses in the $100,000 to $125,000 range. Twenty-five sold in the last 12 months and only 10 are on the market right now.

And sellers in the upper price range could have a long wait ahead.

“In the $300,000 and up there might be a four year supply of houses, just because there have been only one or two that have sold in the last year,” Rogers said.

That market has fallen stagnant, in part because of fewer out-of-staters, who once sold their homes, say in overpriced markets like California, and used their substantial profit to settle here, where property looked like a steal in comparison.

Other high-end buyers were settling in the town of 5,000 because they had taken corporate jobs at Wal-Mart or one of its suppliers in the Bentonville area. Accustomed to long commutes when living in bigger metro areas, they found Alma — located at the intersection of Interstates 40 and 540, with its good schools, a water park and golf courses — too good to pass up.

He believes those buyers will return as the economy improves.

“We live in a dome here (in Alma),” Rogers said. “The sky is falling everywhere else and here we’re fine. Houses would appreciate two, four or even six percent maybe in a good year, but that’s it. They’re not doubling here. They never have and they probably never will. And if there’s a depression everywhere else, we just kind of level off.”

Rogers, who started working for Jim White Realty while still in college, has a prediction for the year ahead.

“I’m real optimistic about 2010. I’ve had several people lock their interest rates in at 4.5%. Several closings in the next month are that way. Anybody who can be buying a house, ought to be buying a house.  … The stage is set. There could not be a better opportunity for the year ahead.”