November home sales show gains; Realtor says market still down

November homes sales in Crawford and Sebastian counties were up almost 15%, but the gains have yet to bring the area housing market back to “normalcy.”

Crawford County had 38 homes sales in November, the same as November 2008. Sebastian County had 94 homes sold in the month, up 22% over sales posted in November 2008, according to the King Realty Group report authored by Realtor Ernie Schimmelman. The gains in homes sold did not come at the expense of home prices, with the rolling 12-month home prices in the two counties relatively flat in November compared to October.

Schimmelman said the decent numbers in October and November will help 2010 get off on a better foot than did 2009. However, he cautions against any early celebration.

“While this is potentially good news, I continue to urge caution about saying the River Valley real estate market is returning to normal and may be ready to show growth,” Schimmelman noted in his report. “I’m cautious because the total 2009 sales results thus far still remain 8% below the same period in 2008. That’s 148 fewer closings. To put this number in perspective, consider that November 2009’s average sales — which
is a 12-month rolling average — for Crawford and Sebastian Counties was 154. When this rolling average gets into the mid-160s we can start celebrating a return to normalcy.”

The most recent figures from the Arkansas Realtors Association support Schimmelman’s caution.

During the January to September period, Crawford County home sales (445) declined 12.85% compared to the same period in 2008; Franklin County home sales (50) were down 20.7%; and Sebastian County home sales (945) were down 12.28%, according to a Nov. 16 report issued by the ARA.

The combined value of the homes sold in the first nine months of 2009 in the three regional counties was $177.148 million, down 16.8% from the $212.958 million value recorded during the same period in 2008. Sebastian County has recorded $121.13 million in home sales in the first nine months of 2009, down 17.1% from the same period in 2008.

Another factor in the Fort Smith/Van Buren market is that a majority of homes on the market are priced below $150,000. Schimmelman’s report shows that 54.2% of the 1,260 homes listed for sale are priced at or below $150,000. Schimmelman noted in his October report that an increase in sales of higher priced homes also will indicate improving market health.

Homes priced between $201,000 and $250,000 spend an average of 147 days on the market in the two-county area. With 123 homes for sale in that price range, Schimmelman estimates 12.1 months of inventory in that price range.

Homes priced between $251,000 and $300,000 spend an average of 158 days on the market in the two-county area. With 93 homes for sale in that price range, Schimmelman estimates 19.7 months of inventory in that price range.

Area homebuyers have more to choose from. The number of homes on the market has increased 24.6% from 1,011 in May to 1,260 in November.

The King Realty Market Group Report (as prepared by Schimmelman):
Key figures:
• Crawford County (November)
Homes listed: 353
Homes sold, November 2009: 38
Homes sold, November 2008: 38
Mean price, November (rolling 12-month rate): $121,217
Homes listed $0 to $200,000: 276
Homes listed $201,000 to $500,000: 71
Homes listed $501,000 and up: 6

• Sebastian County (November)
Homes listed: 907
Homes sold, November 2009: 94
Homes sold, November 2008: 77
Mean price, November (rolling 12-month rate): $126,415
Homes listed $0 to $200,000: 641
Homes listed $201,000 to $500,000: 225
Homes listed $501,000 and up: 41