Newspaper Surveys Conflict on Numbers

Depending on whose study you believe, readers prefer either the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette or The Morning News — by a considerable margin.

The two giants in the Northwest Arkansas newspaper war have hired separate consultants to conduct new readership studies. Predictably, each consultant said the company that hired them has the most popular newspaper in Northwest Arkansas in virtually every category surveyed.

The D-G was preferred in 12 of the 13 categories in its survey, ranging from “most comprehensive” to “best columnists,” but the D-G lost by a slim margin in the “easier to read” category (see chart, Page 17). The Morning News won in all eight categories in its survey, which included “local news” and “University of Arkansas sports.”

Information from the studies is presented to advertisers to try to sway them to buy ads in the most popular newspaper. It’s supplemental information for advertisers who may want to know more than the basic circulation figures, which show The Morning News leading during the week (36,429 to 30,683) and the D-G leading on Sundays (41,270 to 37,884) in Washington and Benton counties combined. Those figures are based on the six-month period ended March 31.

Only about 20 percent of the studies pertain to newspaper preferences. But that part has gotten attention because it is used to promote the publications in the middle of a competitive newspaper war. The remainder of each study concentrates on buying habits, telling advertisers things such as whether readers plan to buy home electronics soon or how often they go to a Wal-Mart store (92 percent in the D-G’s study said they shopped at a Wal-Mart within the last month).

In addition to the weekday/Sunday circulation split, the two newspapers have divvied up Northwest Arkansas’ four largest cities. The Morning News is stronger in Springdale and Rogers, and the D-G has the edge in Fayetteville and Bentonville, thanks to its circulation “alliance” that began in August 2000 with the Northwest Arkansas Times of Fayetteville and the Benton County Daily Record of Bentonville — both of which are owned by Community Publishers Inc. CPI, in turn, is owned primarily by the family of the late Sam Walton of Bentonville, founder of Wal-Mart Stores Inc.

The Morning News is distributed throughout Washington and Benton counties and has a smattering of circulation to the east in Madison and Carroll counties. The D-G’s Northwest Arkansas edition is circulated primarily in Washington and Benton counties but is also delivered to readers in another 10 counties in the Ozarks and the Arkansas River Valley.

With the alliance, some people might argue that the D-G is counting three newspapers in its readership survey, but the D-G is delivered as one “package” with either the Times or Daily Record serving basically as a local news section rather than an independent newspaper. If the D-G is counted as three newspapers, their executives argue, The Morning News should be counted as four because that newspaper has four separate editions for the cities of Springdale, Fayetteville, Rogers and Bentonville.

The spin

The D-G began publishing its readership survey information in “house ads” on May 15. The Morning News, which received its study in early July, was scheduled to begin its house ads on July 20.

Both newspapers are owned by Little Rock-based media conglomerates. The D-G is owned by Walter Hussman’s Wehco Media, and The Morning News is owned by Jack Stephens’ Stephens Media Group, formerly known as Donrey Media Group of Fort Smith and Las Vegas.

The Morning News and the D-G’s northwest operation are both based in Springdale.

Jeff Jeffus said the D-G study conducted by Urban & Associates of Sharon, Mass., has credibility because it was audited by the Audit Bureau of Circulations, which monitors newspaper circulation nationwide.

Jeffus is vice president and general manager of Northwest Arkansas operations for the D-G. He is also publisher of the Northwest Arkansas Times.

Barry Newton, who conducted the readership study for The Morning News, said the ABC audit does lend credibility to the D-G study, but it detracts nothing from the study he conducted.

“Sure, it gives it credibility,” he said. “I could also amend my study and say a consultant on mine was a retired professor from the OU [University of Oklahoma] journalism school.”

Heather Hudgins, marketing director for The Morning News, said the study from Newton Marketing & Research of Norman, Okla., was done to inform advertisers of readership preferences, not as an attachment to ABC circulation figures.

“Our focus was to have the shopping information for advertisers,” she said. “We’re not comparing apples and apples, obviously. [The D-G] did their survey independently. They took their survey to ABC to get a readership survey from the information they had.”

But Christine Urban of Urban & Associates said the D-G survey was conducted with ABC in mind and the questions were worded as specified by ABC.

“They approve every single step,” Urban said of ABC. “Everything is clearly specified, which is why I’m sure we came up with the truth.”

Newton said he charges $15 to $20 per completed interview, so we figure The Morning News spent between $9,000 and $12,000 for its study based on 600 interviews.

“You probably get what you want [at that price],” Jeffus scoffed. “We paid more than that for the ABC audit.”

Jeffus wouldn’t reveal how much the D-G paid for its study.

An article earlier this year in Presstime Magazine, a publication of the Newspaper Association of America, said Urban charges anywhere from $5,000 for a study of a newspaper with a circulation of 9,000 to $500,000 for one with a circulation of 875,000. The company’s average cost per study is between $20,000 and $40,000, the article stated. Based on those numbers and circulation of 41,270 on Sundays in the two-county area, it would appear that the D-G spent at least $20,000 for its study in addition to the cost of the audit.

Urban wouldn’t comment about the price.

In lean times, many newspapers have slashed budgets for such things as readership studies. Others consider them essential, especially in Northwest Arkansas where two media conglomerates are butting heads.

“It’s all marketing driven,” Jeffus said. “It’s taking customers to the next step [beyond only circulation figures]. We feel good about our readership study and the credibility of it.”

Jeffus said this is the first time the D-G has done a readership study since the three newspapers entered into the alliance in August 2000. It’s also the first time the D-G has done a readership study approved by ABC.

Jim Blankenship, director of sales and marketing for the D-G’s Northwest Arkansas operation, said the Newspaper Buyers’ Advisory Committee — which includes executives from several companies including Wal-Mart, Kmart, Sears and Best Buy — had sent a letter to newspapers asking them to conduct readership studies that are verified by ABC.

“We took it to the next level and broke it down,” Blankenship said of the D-G’s readership survey.

Suspicious minds

Tom Stallbaumer, publisher of The Morning News, said the numbers that the D-G has been publishing in house ads since May don’t add up. Other Morning News staffers have taken to calling the D-G’s survey “the Urban myth study.”

Urban interviewed 800 people by telephone and extrapolated the numbers out based on an adult population of 240,845 in the two-county area.

Even though The Morning News has more weekday circulation than the D-G in the two-county area, the Urban study says the D-G has more readers in that same area (82,594 to 70,271).

Urban said a newspaper that is “rich” in content will have more readers per copy than one that is not.

“Usually, the more multi-dimensional a paper gets, the more breadth it has, the more readers it will have,” she said.

Jeffus said he believes The Morning News study is in direct response to the Urban study.

“We don’t have a lot of control over what they tell people,” Stallbaumer said, “so what we have to do is tell our story.”

The D-G folks say Urban is well respected in the field of media analysis and they’ve never heard of Newton.

Stallbaumer said The Morning News conducts readership studies every three or four years. Besides 2002, Newton also conducted studies for The Morning News in 1995 and 1999, so 2002 was a good time for another one.

Stallbaumer notes that the specific questions asked aren’t revealed in the study summary that the D-G is giving to its advertisers.

“You know what our question was,” he said. “It’s right there.”

“Ours are spelled out,” Newton said. “We’re not hiding anything.”

Urban said she wasn’t “hiding anything” either because her questions were approved by ABC.

Newton’s study was conducted in April and May. The Urban study was done in December 2001.

Circulation

The D-G’s circulation has dropped slightly in the latest six-month to six-month figures available from ABC. But Hector Cueva, circulation director for the D-G, said that’s because the comparison includes three months in late 2000 when the newspaper was still culling out duplicated subscriptions from the alliance.

Average circulation for the six-month-period ended March 31 — compared with the same period of the previous year — shows the D-G dropped from 30,884 to 30,683 weekdays and from 42,313 to 41,270 on Sundays.

For the same period, The Morning News’ circulation increased from 36,272 to 36,429 weekdays and from 36,354 to 38,204 on Sundays.

New circulation figures, for the six-month period ending Sept. 30, won’t be available until fall.