Election Season Rears Ugly Head Early

Hold tight to those pocketbooks as election season 2002 gets under way.

Must we really start dealing with 2002 elections so soon? We’ve barely had time to recover from the Jay Dickey-Mike Ross mess of a congressional race.

It’s arriving even earlier than we thought with a likely special election for the 3rd Congressional District seat, which will be vacated by U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson — assuming he is confirmed as director of the Drug Enforcement Agency.

The national parties and lobby groups have no choice but to kick into high gear with the balance of power in Congress so tight. Arkansas was a key swing state in the presidential election, and it will be again in the next two elections with U.S. Senate seats in play.

U.S. Sen. Tim Hutchinson, R-Ark., is clearly vulnerable on numerous fronts in 2002, but he set a new bar on fund-raising with the recent appearance by President Bush. U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln, D-Ark., will be vulnerable only if Republican Gov. Mike Huckabee opposes her, which he is expected to do in 2004.

National involvement — i.e. spending — in the Dickey-Ross race will appear to be minor-league stuff compared to what we’re going to see with Hutchinson’s likely matchup against Democratic Attorney General Mark Pryor. Can we honestly stomach such madness?

Except for his endless efforts to link human rights and free trade with China, Tim Hutchinson’s voting record is solidly pro-business. That, coupled with incumbency, makes him a formidable fund-raiser. The silent but damaging issue of his marriage to a former staff member following his divorce will linger as a wild card.

Pryor’s record on business will be assessed mostly on his actions as attorney general, and the nature of the job won’t help him. But it’s obvious that the relationships built by his family, including former U.S. Sen. David Pryor, through the years puts him in a unique position to compete effectively.

Early handicapping of this race leads me to think Pryor’s domination of the African-American vote will offset Hutchinson’s hard-core base of conservative votes in Benton County and Hot Springs Village. Beyond that, it’s a horse race on turf muddied up by millions of dollars of distorted television advertisements on both sides.

Most of the big businesses in Arkansas will do as they always do in balanced races like this — throw money to both sides.

Beyond the Senate race, all the constitutional offices will be in play thanks to term limits. Huckabee and Lt. Gov. Win Paul Rockefeller are safe bets, but one has to think Democrats must put forth a strong effort against Rockefeller in case Huckabee vacates for the Senate.

The rest of the field, particularly attorney general candidates, will be positioning for the future. It will be interesting to see which new political stars rise from all this.

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Who can blame Asa Hutchinson for taking the DEA post?

It would take years to have a power role on Capitol Hill, and the position fits nicely with his background as a U.S. attorney. He could still figure prominently in a race against Lincoln if Huckabee passed on it.

The GOP rightfully has enormous confidence in retaining that seat in a special election. My question is this: Will the winner be a Hutchinson Republican or a Huckabee Republican?