Students Return; Retail Revs

Despite the retail boom, a UA expert says the campus has less impact on the area’s economy

While Fayetteville’s population has jumped by 44.7 percent – from 36,608 in 1980 to 52,976 in 1996 – the University of Arkansas’ student population has remained “flat” during that time with about 15,000 students enrolled each fall and 4,300 in the summer.

The area’s growth compared to the stagnant college population means the UA probably has less impact on the local economy than it has had in the past, says Craig Schulman, an associate professor of economics at the UA.

During the past 10 years, retail sales in Fayetteville have more than doubled from $433.9 million in 1988 to $1.05 billion in 1998, according to collections from the city’s 1-percent sales tax.

Normally, retail experts say September sales should be about 5 percent higher than those in the previous July. But a survey of retail sales in Fayetteville over the past 10 years indicates no consistency between July and September (see graphic). And city officials, including former Mayor Marilyn Johnson, had no idea why 1988 and 1994 would be years in which September sales were less than those in July.

The Arkansas Razorback football team usually played one game in Fayetteville during September during all the recent years surveyed, so that apparently had no impact on the statistics.

Fall rush

“Back-to-school” is the second-busiest retail season of the year next to Christmas, says George Rosenbaum, CEO of Leo Shapiro & Associates, a Chicago market research firm.

“It’s the beginning of a new rhythm of life with children going back to school,” he says. “There’s a standard belief in America that going back to school warrants a new wardrobe and school supplies.”

Rosenbaum says the fashion industry changes clothing styles every year and “socialization” prompts college students to buy the new styles to fit in with their peers.

Although retail sales across the board are usually up by 5 percent in the fall (as opposed to summer), stores that sell clothing targeted at college-aged consumers expect sales increases of 10 percent to 15 percent in the fall, Rosenbaum says.

Angie Benz, a spokeswoman for Abercrombie & Fitch, says fall is definitely the company’s biggest season for sales. Abercrombie & Fitch, based in Reynoldsburg, Ohio, plans to open a store in Fayetteville’s Northwest Arkansas Mall this fall. Another chain popular with the college crowd, Old Navy, a division of The Gap, is scheduled to open a store just south of the mall in November.

Paul Kelly, president of Silvermine Consulting of Westport, Conn., a firm that monitors national retail trends, says students still have an impact because they return for school “fresh from summer jobs with their bank accounts bulging.”

Rosenbaum says most of the shopping in preparation for the fall semester takes place before the semester begins. So many students may be buying new clothes and school supplies in their respective hometowns before heading for Fayetteville.

Bygone ghost town

Many Fayetteville residents say they remember a time when the town almost shut down during the summer and the students were gone. Even though the summer school population hasn’t increased, Fayetteville residents seem to be under the impression that more students stay in town for the summer.

The stagnant numbers don’t necessarily mean the 10,000 students who aren’t enrolled in summer school have left Fayetteville for those three months. An undeterminable number of them live in Fayetteville and work instead of attending classes during the summer.