Madison predicted Trump

guest commentary by Dr. Eric Baker

Editor’s note: Dr. Eric Baker joined the UAFS faculty in 2008 and has a doctorate in political science from the University of Florida. Opinions, commentary and other essays posted in this space are wholly the view of the author(s). They may not represent the opinion of the owners of Talk Business & Politics or the administration of the University of Arkansas at Fort Smith.
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If you would have said a year ago that Donald Trump would be the frontrunner in the Republican nomination race, most analysts would have said you were crazy.

Yet here we are, in the middle of April, and Trump is ahead of his rivals.

It is an open question whether he will receive the nomination. The Republican establishment will do whatever it can to prevent Trump from winning the nomination. A lot of arm twisting will go on. As the saying goes, where it goes nobody knows.

Much of this turmoil is because of Trump himself. His brash, tell-it-as-he-sees-it style resonates with many Americans who are tired of what they see as wishy-washy establishment politicians. His blunt talk on trade with China and Mexico, illegal immigration, and radical Islam sounds like a tonic to the ears of millions of Americans. These are people who have not benefited from “free” trade that has seen millions of jobs disappear and wages stagnate or decline. They feel threatened by immigrants who seem slow to assimilate.

Trump has tapped into this insecurity. Unfortunately, his rhetoric has alienated many other Americans. Women, Hispanics, Muslims and generally all Americans of judgment are concerned with a Trump presidency. Our allies around the world are worried. A Trump presidency has even been called one of the top ten dangers facing the world today.

The writers of our Constitution believed in popular sovereignty, that legitimate government had to be rooted in the will of the people. But at the same time, the Framers were suspicious of populism. That is why in the Constitution as originally written only the House was directly elected by the people. The president, the Senate and the federal courts were indirectly elected by the people through intermediaries thought to be responsible and sober.

Madison, often called the father of the Constitution, was afraid that the masses would easily be swayed by their passions for “… passion never fails to wrest the scepter from reason. Had every Athenian citizen had been a Socrates, every Athenian assembly would still be a mob.” (Federalist #55)

He most feared the demagogue, that “factious leader” in Madison’s words who, for his own ends, inflames the passions of the people. “Men of factious tempers … of sinister designs” may, once they obtain power “betray the interests of the people.” (Federalist #10) Madison believed the structure of the government and the large size of America would prevent the demagogue from obtaining power. Only men of prudence would gain power.

Madison was wrong.

Because of reforms in the 20th century, the process has opened up, so that nearly anyone with the means can run for office, even for the presidency. Party leadership no longer selects the party’s nominee. The rank and file party voter does so. And mass communication makes it easy for the demagogue to whip them up.

Trump’s supporters are obviously swayed by his rhetoric and bombast. They love him. But the Constitution’s writers would have been horrified by him.