Tolbert: Private Option And Local Angles At Play In GOP Senate Primaries

Much attention has been focused on the statewide and Congressional primaries taking place this Tuesday, but in four state senate districts, the Republican primaries will select who will serve for these districts for the next four years.

Each race has its own interesting subplot, but four races pit a supporter of the private option against an opponent of the plan.  This has been the main issue splitting the Republican Party, but each race also has interesting subplots that could dictate the winner.

1. District 9 – Sen. Bruce Holland v. Rep. Terry Rice – Holland is the incumbent in the race having been first elected in 2010. However, Rice has been in the House for six years so, in a sense, the race has a feel of two incumbents running for the same spot.  Holland voted for the private option in the Senate, while Rice was an outspoken opponent in the House.

The Rice campaign has not held back in its messaging on the issue, saying Holland is a “steadfast support of Obamacare in Arkansas.” Holland has fired back accusing Rice of not supporting several tax cuts.  Here is a post on the back-and-forth.

There could also be another factor impacting the race: voter turnout.  Working against Rice is a five-way race in Democratic primary for the open Scott County Sheriff position.  This will cause many voters in Rice’s area of the district to request a Democratic ballot, which could eat into his numbers.  Still, this one looks like a close race.

2. District 17 – Rep. John Burris v. Scott Flippo v. Mayor David Osmon – Sen. Johnny Key decided not to seek re-election as he left for a job with the U of A leaving this district an open race.

Rep. John Burris is Chairman of the House Public Health Committee and was therefore a key player in passing the private option.  As such, he has become a prime target of the private option opponents, particularly a group called Conduit for Commerce/Conduit for Action.  With a boost from this group, businessman Scott Flippo is running a tough campaign against Burris.  The third candidate in the race, Mountain Home Mayor David Osmon, could send this primary into a runoff.

If this happens, it could help Burris as another runoff is likely in Boone County, where Burris lives.  There is a three-way race for Boone County Judge taking place in the Republican primary.  Flippo needs to get over 50% in the first go-round and Burris needs overtime.

3. District 18 – Sen. Missy Irvin v. Phil Grace – In one respect, this is another private option versus anti-private option race, but this one has an additional wrinkle.

Although Irvin did vote for the private option in 2013, she was one of the last holdouts in the Senate to decide to vote for it.  She switched to voting against the funding for the plan shortly before the 2014 fiscal session putting the plan one vote short (although Sen. Jane English eventually signed on for the funding at least).

Oddly, only days later, Irvin drew an primary opponent from Grace who cited Irvin’s support for the private option as one of his primary reasons for running.  This is an interesting one to watch, but most believe Irvin will hold the seat without much trouble.

4. District 14 – Sen. Bill Sample v. Jerry Neal – This race is all about the private option.  Neal – a retired CPA – made his announcement during a Hot Springs Village Republican meeting during the fiscal session when it became apparent that Sample would vote for the private option funding. Sample is an entrenched incumbent having served four years in the Senate after being term-limited with six years in the House.

I still believe incumbents are tough to beat and Sample has for the most part kept his district happy with the exception of the one vote from those opposed to the private option.  Because of this, I would think Sample holds the seat, but Neal is a strong candidate and could surprise me.  If Neal wins, it will be a huge blow to private option supporters as this will most certainly be the reason.

Tuesday night will likely yield mixed results for those on both sides of the private option.  (There are also 18 House GOP primaries as well with similar subplots).  I doubt either point-of-view will sweep the night, but if the opponents of the private option win even one of these four Senate races, it could spell trouble for the continuation of the program.  Private option funding passed in 2014 without a single vote to spare in the Senate, where it will need 27 out of 35 votes for renewal in 2015.