Tolbert: New Arkansas Poll Good News For Republicans (UPDATED)

A new poll out from Public Policy Polling – a Democratic leaning, but usually reliable polling firm – has a new Arkansas poll out today that is mostly good news for Republicans although some results might not be the what everyone was expecting.  Let’s break it down a bit…

U.S. Senate – The poll confirms what other polls including the recent Talk Business/Hendrix College poll showed – this race is close.  PPP found 43% supported Pryor compared to 42% for Cotton.  That’s a statistical tie and means the race is not over.  Although he definitely still has work to do,  the details show positive signs for Cotton.  For one, Cotton is winning independents by 19 points.  The reason this race is still tight is because the poll shows 41% self-identifying as Democrats versus 27% as Republicans.  I have no idea if this is actually the case, but it is significant that a +14 Democratic poll has Pryor only up one. The poll also finds that the negative ads are working, with both candidates having negative favorability ratings.

In addition, the undecideds  seem to be ripe picking for Cotton.  The PPP poll found that 74% of those undecided in the Senate race have a negative view of President Obama with only 13% of this group having a favorable view.  The more Pryor is tied to Obama, the more this group will swing to Cotton by election day.

Governor –  The poll is roses for Asa Hutchinson who is leading Mike Ross by 8 points with 46% favoring Asa and only 38% favoring Ross.  Again, this is a poll that had 14% more Democrats than Republicans.  How is this possible?  First, Asa leads independent voters by 22 points – 53/31.  That is a big lead.  In addition, Ross has not won over his base with only 63% of Democrats indicating that they support Ross with 20% supporting Asa and 17% undecided.  That means 1 out of 5 Democrats support Asa.  On top of this, the poll shows the Republican primary is not even competitive. Asa has an almost 40 point lead 62 to 23.

Down the Ballot – Good news for Tim Griffin who leads the Republican field with 39%.  Andy Mayberry pulls in 19% with Debra Hobbs at 8%.  It is more than feasible that Griffin can get the majority of the vote on May 20.  He also leads his general election opponent John Burkhalter by 9 points – 39/30%.  These results definitely confirm that Griffin goes into the primary voting with a strong lead and name ID as an incumbent Congressman.

Elvis and the Land Deal – An interesting wrinkle in the poll is that it found Libertarian candidate for Land Commissioner, Elvis Presley, pulls in 17%.  This makes the race between Republican incumbent John Thurston and Democrat Mark Robertson close – 28/27.  That’s unfortunate for Thurston who has proven himself in his four-year term as someone who quietly goes about his job without any negative press.  Without an Elvis factor, he likely would be winning this race by large margins.  The question is will voters actually push the button for Elvis in November or is it just fun to pick him in an opinion poll.

All in all, the poll is good news for Republicans, but may shift the thinking a bit.  A few months ago, Pryor was considered a dead man walking and Ross had the best shot of a statewide win for the Democrats.  Now it looks like the opposite might be true.

UPDATE:  I appeared on the Alice Stewart show Thursday morning to discuss the latest numbers.  Here is a recap of our conversation.