Tolbert: Poll Shows Cotton With 9-Point Lead Over Pryor

I imagine we will see plenty of polls between now and November, but yet another one came out today showing a strong lead for Cong. Tom Cotton over Sen. Mark Pryor among respondents most likely to vote.

The poll was conducted by a Democratic leaning firm, Hickman Analytics.  It is not clear who paid for the poll, but it appears from the questions it was a group interested in opinions on the Keystone Pipeline construction.  The poll’s questions and results can be seen here on Politico’s website.

The key finding was the head-to-head match up between Pryor and Cotton among those who said they definitely will vote in the upcoming election.  From this group:

Tom Cotton 51%
Mark Pryor 42%

This result not only shows Cotton with a 9-point lead, but puts him slightly over the 50 percent mark.  If Cotton continues this climb much higher, it will be difficult for Pryor to catch him.

On the Keystone Pipeline questions, the poll found 70 percent of Arkansans polled support construction of the pipeline, while only 16 percent oppose it.  In addition, if President Obama does not approve construction of the pipeline, 46 percent of respondents indicated it would make them less likely to vote for Sen. Pryor, while only 27 percent said it would make them more likely.

In perhaps a glimmer of hope for Pryor, the poll did find most Arkansans still have a favorable view of him with 47 percent favorable to 36 percent unfavorable.  Cotton too enjoyed positive marks, although he is not quite as well known with 36 percent having a favorable view to 28 percent unfavorable.

So with Cotton’s numbers creeping over 50 percent combined with around 34 percent of voters who never heard of him or don’t have an opinion on him, look for a barrage of negative ads from Democrats as they get to over-convincing this group that Cotton is a bad person.