Tolbert: Cotton Leads Pryor By 7 In GOP-leaning Poll

A new poll points to good news for the Tom Cotton for Senate campaign although it should be noted that the pollster was paid for by Citizens United – a GOP PAC that has supported Cotton in the past.

This does not mean the results are inaccurate, but rather that the group paying for the poll likes the result and therefore released the results.  Although the “grain of salt” caveat applies, these PACs have an interest in accurate polling as they make decisions about where and how to spends millions of dollars in targeted advertising based on the data.

Regardless, the poll provided to Politico on Monday shows 48% preferring Cotton versus 41% sticking with the incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor. Perhaps most importantly, Cotton leads Pryor among independents 52% to 31%.

An independent poll was conducted by Talk Business in early October showing the race basically tied 42% for Pryor and 41% for Cotton. This is the first poll that has been conducted since the troubled rollout of Obamacare has had a full effect.  Pryor has tied himself to the health care insurance reform measure doubling down on his support for the plan only months before its rocky implementation began.

The Polling Company observes…

President Obama is viewed very unfavorably in Arkansas, as 61% have a negative opinion of him, and with eye-opening intensity: 53% are “very unfavorable.” By a greater than 2-to-1 margin, likely voters across Arkansas are also opposed to the Affordable Care Act, also known as “Obamacare”, with 56% saying they are “very unfavorable” towards the law.

Digging more deeply into the data shows that Arkansans’ dislike of the ACA spells even worse news for Mark Pryor than the head-to-head ballot might suggest. Among the 9% of voters who are undecided in the Pryor-Cotton ballot, they oppose Obamacare by a net 51% (69% oppose-18% support). Again, the nexus between Pryor and the ACA is not a matter of simple politics. Pryor voted for the unpopular legislation and owns a piece of its current fate.

Another positive for Cotton is that unlike Republican candidates in several other states, Cotton holds support across the different groups of Republicans.  While states such as Louisiana, Kentucky, and now Mississippi have tea party candidates challenging the establishment’s choice, Arkansas Republicans seem to be united in their support for Cotton who picked up the endorsement of a former Congressional primary opponent Beth Anne Rankin this week.

“Tom is a proven fighter. He’s going to take the fighting spirit straight to the halls of the United States Senate where he’s going to work to repeal Obamacare, to restrain the ridiculous unrestrained growth of the federal government as well as fight for the jobs that are so critical to our communities and our families right here at home,” said Rankin in her endorsement.