Congressional Redistricting: Afterthoughts & The Aftermath
by March 22, 2011 7:00 pm 51 views
After Wednesday’s move by Democrats to successfully push their "Fayetteville to the Fourth" Congressional redistricting plan out of the House State Agencies Committee, there are a variety of questions and comments to pull into a cohesive post.
First, there were strong reactions from GOP leaders.Using phrases like "gerrymander," "abuse of power" and "partisan machine politics," Arkansas GOP chairman Doyle Webb said he’s prepared to file a lawsuit to challenge the map if it passes the legislature.
“The Republican Party had hoped the Legislature could complete this critical process in a bi-partisan manner, but if litigation is necessary we are prepared to file suit to protect the interests of all Arkansans,” Webb said.
As a side note of commentary, we would suggest that whatever plan is passed will be challenged in court by some interest group not satisfied with the outcome. The legal parameters of these cases is a post for another day.
Third District Cong. Steve Womack (R-Rogers) called the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan "absurd," even though he stands to gain politically from the redrawn lines.
In an interview with our content partner, The City Wire, Womack said, “With this plan, we have a very low seed that is apparently still in the game against several top seed teams. You can say that this redefines March madness."
Womack said there are many good plans that have been floated, and he has been committed to staying out of the discussion — with one exception.
“I’ve been on record all along during this as saying that all I will do is cry foul against something that is silly,” Womack explained.
Fourth District Cong. Mike Ross (D-Prescott) chimed in on the redistricting plan and process on Thursday morning, but took a pretty neutral stance:
“By law, it is the state legislature that sets the congressional district boundaries for our state and I will not comment on any redistricting bill out of respect for the process. The Fourth Congressional District doesn’t belong to me, but rather it belongs to the people of Arkansas and I will respect the decision made by our state legislators. My job is to be an effective representative and voice for the people of Arkansas’s Fourth Congressional District, something I’ve done and will continue to do regardless of its boundaries,” Ross said.
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Attention now turns to the House floor. Rep. Clark Hall (D-Marvell), chair of the House State Agencies Committee, says he hopes to run his redistricting bill on Friday. Democrats have a 54-45 advantage over Republicans in the House, so they have the power to ride roughshod over the GOP.
Do they have the political will and can they hold their votes?
The Legislative Black Caucus leader, Rep. Tracy Steele (D-Little Rock), says of the caucus – "we’re on board."
Republicans have to peel 4 votes off the Democratic rolls and here are some likely targets.
In the House committee, Rep. John Vines (D-Hot Springs) was silent during the roll call vote suggesting that he may either abstain or be a potential "no" vote. Of course, Democrats could hold him, too.
Rep. Uvalde Lindsey (D-Fayetteville) was apparently prepared to testify against Hall’s bill in committee before the vote. He says he is "a firm no" and that he isn’t changing his mind.
Rep. Greg Leding (D-Fayetteville) is considered a potential peel-off for the GOP on this vote, but Leding tells Talk Business that "he’s thinking about it."
"We fit geographically better in the Third, but everybody has a connection to Fayetteville, and we’ll make it work wherever we are. Fayetteville will be just fine," Leding said in a text message Wednesday night.
Assuming all 3 of those votes could be persuaded, a fourth unknown Democratic vote would have to step forward.
House Speaker Robert Moore (D-Arkansas City), who usually doesn’t cast a vote while presiding, tells Talk Business he would cast the decisive 51st vote if necessary.
"The plan that the committee came out of here with today, I’ve obviously looked at it," said Speaker Moore. "I’m content that this is a good proposal."
House Minority Leader John Burris (R-Harrison) admits that the votes are in the Democrats’ favor.
"It’s kind of hard to have a strategy. They have a strategy and that kind of dictates ours," he said.
When asked if he thought the Democrats could hold at least 51 votes in the House, Burris added, "I think it’s going to be tough… I think people know a bad map when they see it and I think there’s certainly conversations going on with members now that have a lot of concerns about it – across the board and not even confined to the Third District."
Burris also contends that if Hall’s plan does pass the House, he thinks the 4-4 partisan split on the Senate State Agencies Committee will make for a tough hurdle to clear. He suggested that lawmakers may see more debate in the Senate because of the structure of the committee.
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So let’s turn to the State Senate, where Democrats enjoy a 20-15 advantage over their GOP counterparts. A minimum of 18 votes will be required to pass a redistricting plan, so Democrats can only afford to lose two votes to hold the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan intact.
Sen. Sue Madison (D-Fayetteville) chairs the Senate State Agencies Committee. Madison tells Talk Business that she’s not taking a public position in order to ensure a fair hearing on all maps in her Senate committee.
However, Madison said she’s "open-minded" on the proposal and has heard fairly equally from both sides for and against the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan.
"I do get the sense that there are more people in Fayetteville who are giving this a second look," said Madison. "I know that the Fourth District is expected to continue losing population and the Fayetteville area is expected to continue growing population, so I think in some ways this could mitigate this disparity that the Fourth has population-wise."
A potential swing vote in the Senate: Sen. Larry Teague (D-Nashville). He’s running for re-election next year in what will be a redrawn Senate district and he may be a viable candidate for the Senate Pro Temp position.
He says he’s "not fond" of the House plan, but is tight-lipped on what he might support.
Today, State Sen. Johnny Key (R-Mountain Home) intends to run his plan in Senate State Agencies this morning.
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What’s really at the core of the House plan, Sen. Johnny Key’s (R-Mountain Home) plan, and others are whether or not Congressional Districts will be redrawn in a way that mathematically suggests Republicans will have a 3-to-1 advantage over Democrats or a 2-to-2 draw.
The "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan gives Democrats an advantage in the First and Fourth Districts. By adding southeast Arkansas counties to and removing Baxter County from the First, Democrats pick up voter performance there.
Likewise the Fourth District picks up the rich Democratic votes in Washington County (and some in Johnson and Franklin) to add to their base. Some question if there are too many liberal Democratic votes in Fayetteville to allow it to control a Democratic primary – a real challenge for center-right Democratic Cong. Mike Ross in the next cycle.
Clearly, the Third District remains solidly Republican with the Baxter County gain and the loss of Democratic votes from Washington County.
Of interest, the changes in the Second District. Under the 2-2 scenario, Democrats have effectively conceded the Second to Republican Cong. Tim Griffin by adding Hot Springs Village to the Congressional District and not shifting the large GOP vote in the city of Searcy into the First.
Key’s plan gives Republicans advantages in 3 Districts – the First, Second and Third, but leaves the Fourth in more favorable Democratic shape.
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A final thought: a few weeks ago, Talk Business executive editor Roby Brock predicted this would be a very partisan vote. That’s what happens in Congressional redistricting, particularly in other states.
You could see a near-straight party line vote on redistricting if the Democrats decide to muscle a plan to their advantage through. Despite cries of partisanship, if the tables were turned, you can bet your bottom dollar that the GOP would build a plan in their favor and keep their rank-and-file in order. The Democrats may do the same.Regardless of the outcome, there are sure to be fireworks and it will likely be the most politically charged debate of the session. Arkansas’ Congressional Districts have changed dramatically during the last 70 years, but not so much in the last 20 years. It appears that the 2011 realignment will be one for the ages.