Ross Out: Good Idea Or Bad Idea?

Monday’s retirement announcement by Congressman Mike Ross shakes up Arkansas politics for 2012 and 2014.  You can read his reasons for not seeking re-election here, but the bottom line is Mike Ross is running for Governor in 2014.
 
Ross hasn’t announced yet for Governor, but it’s only a matter of time. 

Not seeking re-election frees him from the logistical hassles of flying back and forth from D.C. to campaign for Governor.  Ross mentioned this potential difficulty of serving in Congress and running for Governor twice during his hastily arranged press conference yesterday.



Had Ross sought re-election, having Barack Obama at the top of the 2012 ticket was problematic, but not for the traditional reasons many think.  During the 2010 tidal wave election, Ross defeated his opponent by 18 points, a decisive win when Democrats across the country were crushed in Congressional elections. Ross had no announced opponent for 2012 and I believe he would have won again.

To win in 2012, Ross would have had to run against Barack Obama, along with Congressional Democrats, and constantly show that he wants nothing to do with the titular head of the Democratic Party.  For a general election in a conservative district, it would have worked – as it did in 2010 – but Ross’ problem is that he wants to be the Democratic nominee for Governor.  He couldn’t spend two years railing against Barack Obama and then 6 months later start running in a statewide Democratic primary with voters who might not appreciate his bashing of Democrats.



Usually, the statewide Democratic primary in Arkansas skews moderate to conservative, and being viewed as the conservative candidate in the race rarely hurts you. 

However, Arkansas politics is changing dramatically. In 2014, the GOP may have a hotly-contested gubernatorial primary since for the first time ever they have a bench of officeholders who can attempt to step up for higher office. Three Republican Congressman and the Lieutenant Governor could all theoretically run. I predict at least two of them will.

During a gubernatorial run, many of Ross’ natural conservative primary voters may cast a Republican ballot in May of 2014. Moreover, Republican legislative gains may increase the number of contested primaries increasing their primary participation and potentially shrinking the Democratic primary giving moderates and Arkansas’ version of progressives more influence. Just a theory at this point, but let’s talk again about it in 2013.

However, let’s not forget the incumbents in the First and Second Congressional districts still must fight off challenges from Democrats who want the seats back. (You can’t count the 3rd CD, since LBJ was President the last time Democrats won there).  Both of those Republican Congressmen could lose re-election in 2012.

Ross insiders tell me that he started seriously thinking about not running for re-election in the past few weeks, but didn’t make a final decision until Sunday night.  At least Ross announced his intentions early, unlike Marion Berry & Vic Snyder in 2010, giving Democrats time to find a candidate.

The logistics of being a Congressman and running for Governor were just too great to overcome and his retirement allows him to fully focus on 2014. These factors are what tipped his decision, according to Ross insiders.

It will be interesting to watch Ross’ moves between now and his expected announcement for Governor. We’re kind of in unprecedented territory with the way this may play out.

I’ll be watching for Ross’ votes on big issues in Washington for clues of how he tries to position himself for a primary battle with AG Dustin McDaniel (and maybe others). Will he vote like he has traditionally done or will the lack of a re-election run give him freedom to shore up his Democratic credentials with some party-line votes? We’ll see.