What Happens Next In Congressional Redistricting?

The scenarios abound for the next round of Congressional redistricting, which shifts back to the Arkansas House of Representatives.

On Wednesday, the State Senate approved SB 871 – which still extends the Fourth Congressional District deep into the heart of the Third, just not through the population-rich environment and perceived Democratic stronghold of Fayetteville in Washington County.

SB 871 now heads to the House State Agencies Committee for consideration on Thursday.

So what could happen between now and April 27th, when legislators will presumably give up on Congressional redistricting and adjourn?

Scenario 1: The House State Agencies Committee and the full House approve SB 871 and it is sent to Gov. Mike Beebe for signature.  This is an unlikely scenario as some House Democrats are already balking at the map.

Scenario 2: The House State Agencies Committee amends SB 871 to the satisfaction of at least 11 members on the panel. It then faces the high hurdle of obtaining 51 votes in the House. Again, an unlikely scenario for ultimate passage considering the current temperature, but tomorrow will be revealing on that front. If the House passes the plan, it goes back to the Senate for consideration, and if successful, on to the Governor and session business concludes. However, Rep. Andrea Lea (R-Russellville), who sits on the House panel, has already stated she’s preparing an amendment to remove the splitting of Pope County so this route is pretty complicated already.

Scenario 3: The House State Agencies Committee or full House rejects SB 871. That would leave the option of the Arkansas State Senate extracting the "Fayetteville to the Fourth" plan from its Senate committee, where it failed, for full chamber consideration possibly on Friday when it reconvenes. Talk Business sources say there is a path to 17 votes in the Senate today, but the elusive 18th vote needed for passage is not there. Failure in the House could convert a Democratic holdout. If the Senate passes the plan, which has already cleared the House, then it heads to the Governor for signature.

Scenario 4: If the previous 3 scenarios fail, an attempt could be made to have a conference committee where both House and Senate members on State Agencies try to hammer out a map that all sides could support. This has been happening informally and in private sessions, so it’s unlikely that a new result would occur. Still, the option exists.

Scenario 5: Punt to the courts. If lawmakers can’t agree on a plan, then the federal courts will draw the new Congressional lines… and that’s a post for tomorrow.