Clinton’s ‘dare to compete’

“Dare to compete” is the title of one the chapters in Secretary Hillary Clinton’s best-selling autobiography, “Living History.” In that chapter of the book, then U.S. First Lady Clinton recalls an instance when though she was still ambivalent on whether to run for the vacant U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2000.

Clinton got a tremendous nudge from an unsuspecting supporter: a young female athlete named Sofia Totti. As the captain of a New York-based High School’s girls’ basketball team, Totti had the task of introducing Clinton at an event. When Clinton walked on stage, Totti leaned in and whispered the following words to Clinton: “Dare to compete, Mrs. Clinton. Dare to compete.”

Clinton points to this anecdote as a woman-to-woman challenge and as a defining moment that ultimately contributed to her decision to run for the vacant U.S. Senate seat in New York. As Clinton now prepares to make official her decision on whether she would run for President of the United States, it is appropriate to not only forecast what her decision is likely to be but also to assess her potential assets and liabilities.

READING THE TEA LEAVES
Although official word from the Clinton camp has been that she has not yet made up her mind as to whether she will run for president, at least five elements exist to suggest that barring a shocking and unexpected turn of events, it is all but a forgone conclusion that Clinton is likely to run for president.

The Hiring of a National Campaign Staff
Multiple national media outlets have reported that Clinton has assembled a massive team of campaign operatives mostly made up of her long-time loyalists and some of President Barack Obama’s former campaign senior staffers. Doing so early in the process not only locks up the services of the top strategists of the Democratic Party, but also sends an unmistakable message to potential democratic challengers that Clinton would be a candidate. It would be indeed very unusual for a public figure of Clinton’s caliber to assemble such a big campaign team and get the media to report on it, if she wasn’t planning on running for president.

Winning the ‘Invisible Primaries’
Even before a single ballot has been cast in the next presidential election, Clinton has already managed to monopolize the narrative within the Democratic Party, within the donors class, and among the chattering class in the media. This makes it very hard – though not impossible – for any other Democrat to break through. Clinton has so far cleared the democratic field and is thus very likely to run for president.

The Taste of Power
When one has been in the corridors of power for as long as Clinton has been, and when one comes as close as Clinton did to becoming the ultimate holder of political power as she did when she unsuccessfully ran for president in 2008, it becomes difficult to abandon the quest for power if there is still a realistic chance to gain it. At least on paper, Clinton certainly has more than a realistic chance to gain that ultimate power. And she is very likely going to seek that power by running for president.

Policy Wonk
Clinton is well known for her meticulous mastery of policy details. Even her staunch Republican detractors would grant her that quality. When one is as steeped in policy making as Clinton has been, and when one understands the impact policies have on ordinary people’s lives as Clinton does, it becomes difficult not to seek a position from which one could matter more. And the presidency would allow Clinton to do just that.

Restoring the Clinton Brand
The last time a Clinton was on a ballot ended in an unexpected defeat as a political newcomer named Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton for the democratic nomination for U.S. President in 2008. Preventing that political humiliation from being historically recorded as the last electoral act of the Clinton power couple would seem as an additional incentive for Clinton to run for and win the presidency. This would restore the Clinton brand as a surviving and winning political brand.

Running for president is one thing. Winning the presidency is quite another. Elections are never won on paper. So, can Clinton win the presidency in 2016? Yes, she can! Can she lose the presidency in 2016? Yes, she also can! Lets’ look at some of her potential assets and liabilities.

ASSETS
Name Identification
Because her husband Bill and she have been in the political spotlight for more than 40 years, Clinton has vicariously accumulated a valuable political commodity: name identification. Most voters could easily identify Clinton on the ballot, which could free her to only focus on getting her message across to voters. Had she not been as well-known as she is, Clinton would have to spend a lot of time and money just to introduce herself to voters.

Fund-raising Machine
The Clintons’ vast network of friends and other powerful connections they have developed over more than 40 years give Clinton a huge rolodex that would come in handy when dialing for campaign dollars. It is estimated that when all is said and done, she would raise well north of $1 billion for her presidential campaign. Money being the mother’s milk of politics, Clinton would be well-positioned to dwarf most of her competitors.

Demographics
In 2016, the demographics of the electorate would be more diverse than in 2012. In 2012, Whites made up 72% of the electorate, and non-Whites made up 28% of the electorate. President Obama bested Mitt Romney by winning only 39% of the white votes while winning a whopping 82% of the non-white votes. It is projected that by next year’s general elections, the white vote share would decline to 69% and the non-white vote share would increase to 31%.

Unless the 2016 Republican presidential nominee can appeal to minority groups and reduce the advantage Democrats traditionally have in winning over minority groups, the 2016 demographics would favor Clinton or any generic Democratic nominee.

Electoral College Map
Clinton or any decent generic Democratic nominee would start out with at least 242 electoral votes (270 electoral votes are needed to win the presidency) that reliable blue states amount to; while a republican nominee would start out with at most 177 electoral votes that reliably red states constitute. And when one takes into account the fact that Obama won 332 electoral votes in 2012, it is easy to see that Clinton or any generic democratic nominee would have many paths to reach the magic 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Gender Symbol
In 2008, Clinton refrained from overtly playing up her gender to win votes. Ever since she officially joined the leadership of her family foundation, the Bill, Hillary, and Chelsea Clinton Foundation, Clinton has been mostly emphasizing the need to empower women and girls. This suggests that during the presidential campaign, Clinton is likely going to emphasize the fact that she would be the first woman to break the glass ceiling and accede to the presidency.

Though she would likely not get 100% of the female vote, Clinton would represent a powerful symbol to many women who would like to elect the first female president. Given the fact that women make up about 53% of the electorate, and given the fact that in recent electoral cycles democratic presidential nominees have won the majority of the female votes, it is not far-fetched to foresee Clinton winning an even bigger share of the female vote in 2016.

Obviously, Clinton’s potential assets as discussed above mean nothing unless they are artfully taken advantage of. And only Clinton can prove whether or not she can actually perform on the campaign trail at a level that would increase the value of those potential assets. Besides, she would have to mitigate her potential liabilities.

Next time, we would discuss the challenges Clinton would have to contend with when she ‘dares to compete’ for president.