Creighton report: November mid-America economic conditions decline

Business conditions in mid-America moved “below growth neutral” in November, according to the Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, which measures economic activity in a nine-state region from Minnesota to Arkansas.

The overall Business Conditions Index fell to 40.5 in November from 50.5 in October. Anything above 50 indicates growth conditions.

“Creighton’s latest survey indicates that the regional manufacturing economy continues to move sideways with the wholesale inflation gauge moving lower,” said Ernie Goss, director of Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group and the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics in the Heider College of Business. “Supply managers reported weakness in both imports and exports.”

Arkansas’ November Business Conditions Index fell to 49.1 from 54.2 in October. Components from the November survey of supply managers were: new orders at 48; production at 45.8; delivery lead time at 54.8; inventories at 49.8; and employment at 47.3.

For September and October of 2025, the average weekly number of workers in the state receiving unemployment compensation was 5.1% lower when compared to the same period in 2024.

While current numbers are not available from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment data based on workers receiving unemployment insurance at the state level were available. For September and October of 2025, the number of workers in the nine-state region receiving unemployment compensation was 3.7% higher when compared to the same period in 2024.

Economic optimism “increased to a weak 47.4 from October’s frail 42.2,” according to the report.

“Concerns regarding tariffs, inflation and slowing business activity restrained supply managers’ economic expectations,” Goss wrote. “Only one in five supply managers expect rising economic conditions for their firm over the next six months.”

Following are other notes from the report.
• The regional inventory index, reflecting levels of raw materials and supplies, dipped to 50.1 from 50.3 in October.

• Recent retaliation from higher U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions pushed new export orders, or purchases from abroad, lower for the last six months. New export orders increased to 42.7 from October’s 40.8.

• As a result of record imports for the first two months of 2025 and higher import prices, supply managers pulled back on purchasing from abroad in the last nine months. The November import index rose to 37.2 from 34.0 in October.

• Other survey components of the November Business Conditions Index were: new orders slipped to 48.3 from 48.4 in October; the production index declined to 46.2 from October’s 49.8; and the speed of deliveries of raw materials and supplies fell to 55.1 from 57.9 in October. Lower readings indicate speedier deliveries and/or declining supply chain disruptions or delays.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the mid-America economy. States included in the survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.