Farm Bureau says turkey dinner prices are lower this Thanksgiving

Turkey dinners are a family tradition for millions of American families on Thanksgiving, and this year the cost will be about 5% less than in 2024, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) annual survey, now in its 40th year.

“You may see higher prices on some items, but remember that grocery stores always have a strategy for Thanksgiving,” said David Anderson, economist at Texas A&M AgExtension. “Typically, it’s built around a special feature on the turkey to get people into the store, and I suspect this year will be no different.”

The trade group said $55.18 can feed a family of 10 with a traditional turkey meal. That compares to $58.50 in last year’s report, and $61.17 in 2023.

While turkey prices are lower, as are stuffing mix, dinner rolls and cranberries, the costs of other foods such as sweet potatoes, whole milk, celery, carrots, whipping cream and frozen peas have all increased in price from a year ago. Pumpkin pie mix and pie shell price have remained unchanged from a year ago.

While turkey is often the main feature on family tables, consumers have added other foods in more recent years. AFBF also tracks the addition of ham, Russet potatoes, and frozen green beans added to the survey in 2018, reflecting a wider variety of meals. Families adding the extra foods will have a grocery bill of $77.09 or $7.71 per person. Compared to a year ago, the cost of this meal is 28 cents cheaper than in 2024.

“We know every dollar and minute counts – which is why we are offering a low-priced, one-click Thanksgiving Meal Basket featuring iconic brands like Butterball and Stove Top alongside trusted Walmart private brand items,” said Walmart U.S. CEO John Furner. “We want every family to be able to share a meal and celebrate without compromising on quality, quantity or  tradition.”

Walmart’s basket of 20 holiday food items is billed at under $40 to feed a family of 10. It features a Butterball turkey at 97 cents a pound. Target’s basket feeds a family of four and includes a 10-pound turkey and six other food items for $20.

AAA expects 94% of Americans will celebrate Thanksgiving this year with a family meal, on par with 2024.

TURKEY TROUBLES
Turkey prices are lower this year and make up the smallest share of the Thanksgiving grocery bill since 2000, according to AFBF.

A 16-pound turkey will cost an average of $21.50, down 16% from 2024. While fresh turkey prices continue to rise as the poultry sector fights highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), prices for frozen turkeys – the most commonly used for Thanksgiving dinner – continue to fall, AFBF reports.

Anderson said turkey production is down more than 8% year over year as the industry continues to grapple with low prices, increased input and labor costs, and shifting consumer demand. Aside from whole birds for the holiday season, most turkey becomes deli meats in grocery stores and sandwich shops.

While Americans are eating double the amount of turkey they did in 1970, the 14.8 pounds per person consumed in 2023 is 18% lower than the 18.1 pounds per capita consumed in 1996, Anderson said.

OTHER THANKSGIVING NUMBERS
According to Pew Research, 74% of survey respondents plan to attend Thanksgiving dinners with others, while 34% will host from their own homes. About half of Americans say they will watch movies or play games with family over the Thanksgiving holiday, according to Pew Research.

A record 186.9 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to the survey recently released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure is up by more than 3 million total shoppers from the previous record of 183.4 million last year.

“Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts,” Prosper Insights & Analytics Executive Vice President of Strategy Phil Rist said. “Of those planning to take advantage of sales, over half say it’s because the deals are too good to pass up. Others point to the tradition or simply say they like to start their holiday shopping during the long weekend.”

A survey from the National Turkey Association found 71% of Americans plan to watch football this Thanksgiving. A record 141 million people tuned in to watch at least a few minutes of NFL football on Thanksgiving in 2024, according to the National Football League.

AAA projects 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home over the Thanksgiving holiday period from Tuesday, Nov. 25 to Monday, Dec. 1. This year’s domestic travel forecast includes an additional 1.6 million travelers compared to last Thanksgiving, setting a new overall record. Thanksgiving is the single busiest holiday for travel compared to others like Memorial Day and July 4.

“Thanksgiving travel numbers are always impressive because this holiday has become synonymous with heading out of town to spend time with loved ones,” said Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel. “People are willing to brave the crowds and make last-minute adjustments to their plans to make lifelong memories, whether it’s visiting extended family or meeting up with friends.”