Hutchinson’s Herculean challenge

The proofreaders for the Mike Ross gubernatorial inauguration invitations have been hired and called in to work early.

Such were some of the early notes from the conventional political wisdom when former Lt. Gov. Bill Halter announced Monday (July 29) his withdrawal from the Democratic primary for Arkansas governor. Prior to Monday morning, Halter and former U.S. Rep. Mike Ross were on the Democratic primary election ticket. On the GOP primary ticket is former U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson and some fella from Little Rock and a legislator from Northwest Arkansas.

But with Halter out of the race, the political experts say Ross, who has been a fundraising machine, can focus more of his money and messaging on the general election and the matching pajamas he and the missus can wear their first night in the Governor’s Mansion.

Indeed, Ross is cranking up the heat on the money side – and money is still the leading indicator of election success. In the recent quarter, Ross raised a record $1.97 million in campaign funds, and reported having $1.696 million in cash on hand. Hutchinson, his presumptive GOP opponent, raised $378,795 during the quarter and has just a little more than $725,000 in the bank.

Several months ago, Hutchinson said winning the race would take at least $5 million. That means between now and September of 2014 (enough time to still buy media advertising), Hutchinson will need to raise a little more than $300,000 a month – or more than double his current monthly rate.

While it is not looking good for the GOP to win back the state’s top political job, it is too early to declare a victory for any candidate or party. This is politics. There are more than  15 months to the general election. Anything can happen.

So how does Hutchinson get through the GOP primary, mount a formidable challenge to presumptive Democratic candidate Mike Ross and pull out an election night victory?

First, he raises a boatload of money. And he needs to begin with the third quarter report – which should be made public around Oct. 15. If his next fundraising report doesn’t push his bank account closer to $1.5 million, don’t be surprised when the chatter begins for the Republican Party of Arkansas to find another candidate. Problem is, the bench is not there. (U.S. Rep. Steve Womack, R-Rogers, has said he is not interested in the race. Considering his Congressional voting record, Womack certainly seems 100% focused on moving up the party leadership in the U.S. House.)

Let’s say Hutchinson’s fundraising numbers improve. In addition to money, he’ll need to develop a message that connects with the plurality of conservative Arkansas voters who have been loyal fans of Gov. Mike Beebe, a Democrat. Ross’ campaign and messaging is not likely to be much different than what has allowed Beebe to maintain his impressive popularity through more than six years as governor.

Let’s say Hutchinson is able to develop a message that peels away Beebe-loving conservative voters from Ross. If so, Hutchinson will probably want to maximize that by successfully attaching a big-government, pro-Obama label on Ross.

But even that will be tough. In the 2010 general election, when Arkansas Republicans won a landslide of elected offices based on an anti-big government, anti-Obama message, there were two Democrats who won by healthy margins: Mike Beebe was re-elected governor and Mike Ross was re-elected to Arkansas’ 4th Congressional District.

So far, Hutchinson’s path to victory includes big gains in fundraising, successful messaging to conservative Arkansans who voted for Gov. Mike Beebe (D), and connecting Ross to Obama. No problem, right?

Lastly, Hutchinson may also need a little help from the political gods. That help, preferably for Hutchinson, will deliver a controversy that removes a substantial portion of Ross’ All-American-Boy-Scout-Sunday-School-leader-Ward-Cleaver image.

We disagree with those who say Halter’s action on Monday creates a clear path to the Governor’s Mansion for Ross. However, it does mean Hutchinson will have to run an aggressive and a virtually error-free campaign if he intends to reverse the odds that Arkansas will soon have three consecutive governors named Mike.