UCA President discusses changes coming to higher ed, ‘enrollment cliff’

University of Central Arkansas President Dr. Houston Davis has helped guide the Conway-based university to some solid enrollment gains over the last four years. Earlier this fall, UCA welcomed one of its largest incoming freshman classes with 2,183 students, marking a 26% increase in incoming students from fall 2023, according to preliminary data.

The incoming freshman class represents the largest year-to-year increase in at least 25 years with 446 more students over last year. This cohort of 2,183 is the second-largest incoming freshman class among all Arkansas four-year universities for the ninth consecutive fall.

Overall enrollment for fall 2024 at UCA is 10,123 which is a 3.4% gain from the previous year. New graduate and transfer students, as well as the incoming freshman class, helped to fuel overall growth at the university.

Davis, who appeared on this week’s edition of Talk Business & Politics, said natural growth, momentum and a new scholarship effort called the UCA Commitment worked in unison to achieve the most recent success.

“Certainly our UCA commitment program is driving a lot of that and I have to give a lot of credit to our university. There’s a lot of good buzz about the university, so probably a third of that [growth] we would’ve naturally experienced. About a third of that is the UCA commitment. About a third of it is just that we’ve got a lot of momentum built up,” he said.

The UCA Commitment is a new initiative where the university works with incoming students to find as much scholarship money that a student is eligible for. Families are often on their own to seek and find those opportunities. The goal is to finish an undergraduate degree with no student loan debt.

But Davis warns that demographic changes will affect the college landscape soon, and state government’s effort to monitor higher education spending more closely will force changes. For starters, a smaller population base of college-age students – called an “enrollment cliff” – will have consequences.

“You go back to around 2006, 2007, 2008, you had a little bit of a mini baby boom in America, and that certainly manifest itself in Arkansas. Those are the students that are coming through K-12 now. Then you saw after the housing bubble popped in 2009, 2010, birth rates and decisions to have children really tailed off,” he said.

“Higher ed is seeing that in ‘24, ‘25 and ‘26, there’s a little bit of a respite because of, again, I call it the ‘sugar spike.’ I think the schools that are seeing some relief, I think it’s wise to enjoy that for a couple of years. I think it’s wise to navigate that, not thinking that’s a permanent fixture in their landscape… Tighter times are coming,” Davis added.

Gov. Sarah Sanders and the Arkansas Legislature have suggested that higher education will be a focal point in next year’s regular session. Davis predicts that the funding formula for enrollment and retention will be scrutinized, as will further accountability to tie diplomas to jobs.

“I think that there will be an accountability and an efficiency sort of component to whatever,” he said. “I think that there’s certainly going to be some emphasis on low producing programs where there are degrees that perhaps don’t have a lot of enrollment in them and are not seeing a lot of graduates. We’re in good position on that front. I think that there’s going to be an emphasis on cost, on what is it that institutions are doing to be able to help families. And again, we feel like we’re checking that box.”

“Maybe a little more focused on workforce. Again, for our two-year counterparts, I think that’s a really good thing. We’ve done some things like our Arkansas Coding Academy, our cybersecurity degree, the UCA Aviation Academy, some programs that I think position us to be a part of a dialogue about what is it that the universities are doing,” he added.

UCA has also expanded its presence in burgeoning Northwest Arkansas. With roughly 3,600 graduates located in fast-growing Benton and Washington counties, UCA recently hired Paul Gatling, former editor of the Northwest Arkansas Business Journal, to serve as senior director of Northwest Arkansas Engagement. Davis said Gatling’s role is still being defined and will evolve.

“He’s great hire. What we’re really wanting to do is make certain UCA gets students from all 75 counties and we send alumni to all 75 counties. We’re wanting to make certain that it’s not just that we’re recruiting in Northwest Arkansas, but we’re engaging with employers. We’re thinking about what is it that is going to be our relationship to the local economy there. We like to think that we can take on some grand challenges that are important to us and important to the state. We can’t be all things to all people, but we’re looking forward to seeing Paul’s leadership in that area connecting us up to possibilities to continue to have some statewide impact,” Davis said.

You can watch Davis’ full interview in the video below.