Thurston leads in Treasurer race; Undecideds at 70% in Chief Justice matchup

Republican Secretary of State John Thurston is the frontrunner in his race for Treasurer of State and a massive group of undecideds remain up for grabs in the election for Arkansas Supreme Court Chief Justice, according to a new survey.

The latest Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll, now in its 15th year and conducted on Sept. 5-6, 2024, collected opinions from 696 likely Arkansas voters statewide and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6%. Respondents were asked:

Q: If the race for State Treasurer were being held today, which of the following candidates
would you vote for?

3%  Michael Pakko (L)
31%  John Pagan (D)
48%  Secretary of State John Thurston (R)
18%  Undecided

Q: On November 5th, a runoff election will take place for the position of Chief Justice on the Arkansas State Supreme Court. If the election for Chief Justice were today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?

19%  Arkansas Supreme Court Justice Karen Baker
11%  Supreme Court Justice Rhonda Wood
70%  Undecided

This is the final installment from this round of baseline polling. Previous results have been released on the Presidential race, Gov. Sarah Sanders’ and President Joe Biden’s job approval ratings, and potential ballot issues.

ANALYSIS
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the construction and analysis of its polls.

Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, is active in Democratic Party politics and helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:

“The death of state Treasurer Mark Lowery in July 2023 created an opening in that position filled by appointment. However, the state constitution requires that position be filled at the next general election and also denies the appointee Larry Walther the opportunity to run for the post.

“Secretary of State John Thurston, a regular on the Arkansas state ballot, is the GOP nominee while former state Senator John Pagan, a long-time law professor in Arkansas and Virginia, is the Democratic nominee. Economist Michael Pakko is representing the Libertarian Party in the race.

“Our survey shows Thurston with a healthy lead in the race. Unsurprisingly, a partisan split shows itself in the race with about eight in ten Democrats and Republicans supporting their party’s candidate. Independents do support Thurston by about a two-to-one margin. The Second and Third Congressional Districts are fairly evenly split, but Thurston runs up large margins in the more rural parts of the state. The Secretary of State, as is the case with most Republicans in Arkansas in the Trump era, does very well with those without a college degree while voters with a college degree split fairly evenly.

“Perhaps most interesting is the age pattern shown in the race. While the sample size is small with those under the age of 30, Libertarian Pakko actually is in a slight lead with a very split group; it shows the relative detachment from the historic two parties among the youngest of voters. Otherwise, Pagan has a solid lead with 30–44-year-old voters and Thurston leads decidedly with those over 45.

“Because there was no majority winner in the four-candidate race for Arkansas state Supreme Court Chief Justice in the May election, two current members of the Court – Justices Karen Baker and Rhonda Wood – will face off in a November runoff. Our survey shows that while Baker (who led the divided field in May) has a lead over Wood, the real leader at this stage is Undecided.

“Seven in ten voters in our survey don’t yet have a candidate they support in the race, meaning that the final weeks of the campaign will determine the race’s outcome. Baker has a history of overperforming in races across the state running small dollar campaigns. Likely, she will be outspent in this race by Wood (as she was in May).

“Although heavy majorities of all subgroups of voters are undecided, there is an interesting partisan gap shown in the race. Baker leads among Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters, but her largest lead is with Democrats. Baker gains the votes of about one-fourth of Democratic voters (she leads that group 24%-9%). This suggests that at least some more progressive voters have picked up on the relative moderation of Baker in her voting record on the Court.

“Wood is a more decided conservative with historic Republican bona fides. However, Republicans are not yet responding to those patterns (only 11% of GOP voters support Wood as opposed to 16% who support Baker). Assuredly, Wood’s campaign will find ways in the coming weeks to remind Republican voters (the plurality in the state) of Wood’s history and voting record on the Court. This feels like a race that could well go down to the wire, however.”

Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, also helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:

“Secretary of State John Thurston leads the three-way race for State Treasurer, garnishing nearly 50% of the vote. Thurston leads handily with voters in the largest two age groups – 45-64 (58%) and 65+ (48%). Republicans widely support their party’s nominee (79%), while Democrats support their parry’s nominee, John Pagan, at a similar level (80%). Thurston maintains a 22 percentage point advantage with Independents. Thurston leads with voters both with and without a college degree, and both men and women. His advantage with men is 26 percentage points and his lead among women is 10 percentage points.”

METHODOLOGY
For more details on the poll’s methodology, including a breakdown of voters demographically, click here.

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link back to this specific story is also required for any digital or online usage by other media outlets.

For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics’ Roby Brock by email at [email protected].