Republicans have legislative edge; Tea Party an asset

Editor’s note: Roby Brock, with our content partner Talk Business, wrote this report. He can be reached at [email protected]

Arkansas Republicans have a generic advantage over Democrats in the preliminary stages of next year’s state legislative races, according to new polling data released by Talk Business and Hendrix College.

"Next year’s legislative elections will be very high-profile locally and at the state level," said Talk Business & Politics executive editor Roby Brock. "And with control of the state House and state Senate hanging in the balance, how these competitive local legislative races play out will dictate a number of major policy and leadership decisions.”

In a statewide survey of 2,101 respondents conducted last week, the poll found that Arkansas voters preferred a Republican candidate over a Democratic one by about 6%; however, a large group of undecideds — 31% — remain up for grabs.

Q: In next year’s elections, do you plan to vote for a Republican candidate for your state legislator, a Democratic candidate for your state legislator, a third party candidate, or are you undecided?
34.5%     Republican
28.5%     Democrat
6%          Third party candidate
31%        Don’t know

"If Arkansas is a purple state at this juncture, it is probably a reddish-purple right now," said professor of political science at Hendrix College Dr. Jay Barth, who helped construct and analyze the poll. "We don’t see the traditional advantage that comes with being a Democrat in Arkansas. The state legislature is clearly winnable by either party based on which one can recruit candidates who have ties to their communities and have the personal skills that pay off in local elections."

This latest Talk Business-Hendrix College survey also found that by a slim margin more Arkansans have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement than those who have an unfavorable opinion. Nearly 4 out of 5 Arkansans had an opinion on the movement.

Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?
41%     Favorable
37%     Unfavorable
22%     Don’t know

"Other polling we’re seeing from different parts of the country suggest the Tea Party’s negatives have grown significantly across time," Barth said. "But in Arkansas, there’s a clear vision for what the Tea Party is and it’s a positive one.”

Barth noted that Republicans strongly support the movement and Democrats strongly oppose it, but pivotal Independent voters have a generally positive opinion of the Tea Party.

"It’s doing quite well among Independents," he added. "And while it is a divisive entity in Arkansas, it’s certainly not creating an albatross for Republicans like it is in other parts of the country."

Link here for more detail and analysis on the poll results.