The Arkansas Election Line: 4th Congressional District

Editor’s note: Roby Brock, with our content partner Talk Business, wrote this report. He can be reached at [email protected]

With Rep. Mike Ross’ departure from the 2012 Congressional race, the Arkansas Election Line gives an initial rating of "toss up" to this Fourth District seat.

The Arkansas Election Line is a political ratings assignment that includes analysis and opinion from conservative/GOP blogger Jason Tolbert, progressive/Democratic blogger Michael Cook and Talk Business & Politics executive editor Roby Brock. Between now and November 2012, the AEL will examine major races at the state, regional and local level and offer commentary on the direction of those elections.

Ross, a conservative Democrat, was a dependable candidate for the Democrats for the last decade. But with his exit, this race will be a wide-open shootout with no clear favorites.

As a matter of fact, there is no logical successor to Ross — Democrat or Republican — which will make this race very dynamic and interesting to watch unfold. Initial names who are floating candidacies have produced more than a dozen local candidates, but no real rock stars in the early field.

Republicans have a legitimate and realistic chance to take this seat. They have held it in the not-too-distant past — Ross defeated Republican Jay Dickey 12 years ago — and there have certainly been gains in the Fourth District at the local level for the GOP, which will advance their cause.

A key county is Garland County, which was swept by Republican challengers in the 2010 elections. It made up about one-sixth of the entire vote of the district before Congressional redistricting last year. The new counties of the Fourth have a mixture of Democratic and Republican representatives.

Still, this district has grown increasingly conservative as the Democratic-leaning counties of the Delta in the eastern half of the district have lost population. As the district has grown northward, it has added conservative voters who may identify more with a GOP candidate than the eventual Democratic nominee.

Democrats will be looking for a candidate who can ride Ross’ coattails and the exiting Congressman said he would be dedicated to the eventual nominee. It will take that and more, especially with poorly performing incumbent President Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket.

The AEL wants to see which candidates eventually enter before re-assessing this race. Quality of the candidate will be essential for both parties. Another important factor to watch: party intensity. Republicans were on the warpath for the Fourth, while Democrats had a supposedly safe seat and could concentrate on taking back the First and Second.

Now, a battlefield with a new dynamic has emerged. Game on.