Parties battle for Arkansas House majority

Editor’s note: Roby Brock, with our content partner Talk Business, wrote this report. He can be reached at [email protected]

With 45 representatives in the 100-member House, Arkansas Republicans are hungry to become that chamber’s majority party. Democrats aren’t ready to concede.

After Tuesday’s special election Democratic victory by Rep.-elect Hudson Hallum, the state’s majority party maintains a 55-45 seat advantage in the Arkansas House of Representatives.

But with 2010 gains made by Republicans, legislative redistricting and renewed party efforts, the battle for majority status in the House will be an all-out war.

GOP ORGANIZING & IN MOTION
Talk Business & Politics has learned that the GOP House caucus has added new responsibilities to its leadership ranks and has ambitious plans to move its party into the majority in 2012.

"We tasted the promised land and we want to get there," said House Minority Leader John Burris, R-Harrison, referring to gains made by Republicans in 2010 and their influence on the legislative process in the 2011 regular session.

Last week, the caucus began a "listening tour," starting with a business roundtable and fundraiser in northwest Arkansas that brought bankers, businessmen and big-wigs from the corporate giants in the region to the table. U.S. Rep. Steve Womack, R-Rogers, and Lt. Gov. Mark Darr (R) were co-hosts for the event along with corporate sponsors, such as J.B. Hunt, Tyson Foods, Cox Communications, SWEPCO and several lobbyists.

Freshman Rep. David Sanders, R-Little Rock, who is heading up the caucus’ fundraising efforts, says that somewhere between $25,000-$30,000 was raised in northwest Arkansas and other events are planned in the future for Little Rock, Fort Smith, and south Arkansas. The money will be used to defend newly-won seats and fight for enough new ones to provide the GOP a majority in the House.

"We’ll put together a very aggressive program to win some races," Sanders said.

The GOP caucus has also put 2 other freshmen in positions of power to move their plan forward. Rep. Bruce Westerman, R-Hot Springs, is heading up a policy agenda, while Rep. Jon Eubanks, R-Paris, is taking on House rules to improve the caucus’ efforts.

Burris saysthe listening tours they’re holding are aimed at learning what consensus exists for changes in state tax and regulatory policies.

"We’re talking to business owners, meeting with them, talking with them about regulations, codes and tax codes just to figure out what they’d like to see change and what would make Arkansas more business-friendly," he said.

DEMOCRATS ORGANIZING, TOO
The Democrats are not sitting on the sidelines. Buoyed by Tuesday’s special election victory by Hudson Hallum, Democrats are honing a message and a game plan to hold onto their slim 55-45 majority.

"We are strategizing and working on our master plan. We realize that there are going to be 100 races to keep our eyes on," House Majority Leader Rep. Johnnie Roebuck, D-Arkadelphia, tells Talk Business & Politics.

She notes that Democratic ranks in the House have fallen from 75 members in 2007 to 72 in 2009 to 55 in 2010.

"We plan to hang on to the majority and increase it," Roebuck says.

She confides that the Democrats — for House seats and other races — are identifying potential candidates and visiting with constituents who she says are concerned about going too far with state tax cut policy. Fundraising will come down the road.

"First of all, we’re making sure the best candidates are out there," says Roebuck. "The people that I talk to about the possibility of running tell me that they are very concerned about this tax cut frantic frenzy."

Roebuck sees a real battle brewing in the 2012 fiscal session over the state’s $94 million budget surplus and more tax cuts — a debate likely to set the tone for the 2012 general election.

Like Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe has expressed, Roebuck says she supported deeper tax cuts than she would have preferred in the last session. With the surplus, she’s an advocate for holding off on additional tax breaks and shoring up state services or providing a COLA increase for lower-paid state employees.

"Now, we have the Minority Leader saying he wants more tax cuts. Every time you have a tax cut, you’ve got to be able to say where you’re going to cut services. These people on the other side of the aisle are the first ones who are saying we can’t cut those services," she adds.

REDISTRICTING INFLUENCE
By the end of this month, new legislative maps will be redrawn by the Arkansas Board of Apportionment (BOA), a panel controlled by two Democrats and one Republican.

The Democrats — Attorney General Dustin McDaniel and Gov. Mike Beebe — have been tight-lipped about the maps and have yet to disclose any publicly. Republican Secretary of State Mark Martin has floated a variety of maps, but in the end, is likely to be outvoted by Beebe and McDaniel.

Minority Leader Burris says the BOA process will definitely have an influence on his party’s prospects for taking the House.

"I think the BOA will draw lines that are good for the Democratic party and that’s not a surprise," Burris said.

He hopes the lines follow the constitutional premise of "one person, one vote" and that geographical boundaries and communities of interest remain intact.

"Using those two principles of framework, I don’t think you can draw a map that’s unfair to Republicans," said Burris.

"I think there will definitely be some of those seats that we have to work to defend, but at the end of the day, this is going to be an election about Barack Obama and the national policies that have led our country," he added.

Roebuck contends that once the final maps are put forth next Tuesday, she’ll have a better idea of where Democratic efforts may center.

She says she hasn’t tried to influence the maps, but has worked to educate current Democratic members on how they can have input on the process.

Unlike Burris, Roebuck is a skeptic that the Republican or Democratic performance of newly drawn districts will dramatically impact the outcome of the 2012 elections.

"I honestly believe that a good quality candidate — it doesn’t matter what the maps look like — Democrats are going to win," she said.