Talk Business Poll: Beebe up, Legislature and highways down

Gov. Mike Beebe (D) remains enormously popular among Arkansas voters, an advantage he holds over many of his state counterparts and a potential edge over a less-than popular state legislature.

Also, two proposed highway initiatives related to highway funding shows that supporters of the plans clearly have an uphill battle.

In our latest Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll, 659 Arkansas voters were asked to rank Beebe’s job performance as well as the 88th General Assembly.

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Gov. Mike Beebe is doing?
62% — Approve
19% — Disapprove
19% — Don’t Know

Q: Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Arkansas legislature is doing?
29%  Approve
35%  Disapprove
36%  Don’t Know

The last time Talk Business polled the state legislature’s job performance was in July 2009 after the conclusion of the regular session. In that poll of 600 Arkansas voters, 58% approved of legislators’ efforts, while 31% disapproved and 11% were undecided.

Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the poll.

"In many ways, we shouldn’t be too surprised by the results for the legislature. Going back to the 2010 election cycle, we’ve seen a lot of animosity towards government in general expressed by voters," Barth said. "The legislature hasn’t gotten much accomplished in this session. They’ve really dealt with a number of hot-button issues until the last couple of weeks and most of those have died in committee and so the result has been a pretty ineffectual legislature."

Roby Brock, editor of Talk Business, said the poll results could prove interesting if Beebe and the legislature enter a more combative relationship in the waning weeks of the session over high-profile issues, such as prison reform, tax cuts or the state budget.

Barth added, "I think we need to think of Beebe’s enormous popularity, not just compared to the legislature, but really compared to governors elsewhere around the country."

Beebe’s job approval high marks transcended party lines, gender and age categories, he said. "The Governor is not seen as an ideologue. He’s really seen as a manager, as someone who really manages government effectively," Barth said.

House Speaker Robert Moore (D-Arkansas City) wants the legislature to refer a proposed question and a proposed constitutional amendment to raise taxes for roads.

HB 1902 and HJR 1001 are tandem bills dealing with Speaker Moore’s effort to improve highway funding. HB 1902 calls for a trucking association-supported nickel increase in the diesel fuel tax to extend an interstate bond program, subject to voter approval. HJR 1001 by former Highway Commissioner Rep. Jonathan Barnett, R-Siloam Springs, is still in its shell form, but will ultimately be a voter-referred half-cent sales tax increase for four-lane highways throughout the state.

Q: Arkansas legislators are considering several highway funding options to build and maintain roads. One proposal would increase diesel fuel taxes by 5 cents to pay for Interstate highway needs. Do you support a five-cent diesel fuel tax increase for this purpose?
32% — Yes
56% — No
12% — Don’t Know

Q: Another highway funding proposal would include raising the sales tax in Arkansas by a half-cent to build and repair four-lane highways across the state.  Do you support a half-cent diesel fuel tax increase for this purpose?
34% — Yes
59% — No
12% — Don’t Know

Barth said highway plans have been successful and unsuccessful in recent decades. He points to former Gov. Mike Huckabee’s successful GARVEE bond for Interstate repairs program in 1999, but also notes that his predecessor, former Gov. Jim Guy Tucker, failed trying to pass a major roads program. Moore’s efforts face an uphill battle.

"Both of these proposals are rejected by the public," said Barth. "Here’s a case where people are really showing an indication that they don’t want a tax increase."

Brock said the poll results may give some legislators pause to refer the measures for a public vote, but it also gives supportive interest groups a baseline for what will be needed.

"There is already a contingency of anti-tax legislators opposed to the two proposals and these results are likely to fuel their arguments," said Brock. "However, for the cities, counties, truckers and other groups pushing for new and improved roads, this is at least a reality check that public opinion will need heavy persuasion to support a tax increase for more highway causes."

POLL BACKGROUND
This poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%, was completed using IVR survey technology on Monday, February 28, 2011 among 659 registered Arkansas voters statewide.  Congressional Districts were represented by 25% per district.  You can access the full poll at this link.