Manpower optimism

U.S. employers anticipate small staffing gains for the first quarter of 2011, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released Tuesday (Dec. 7).

The report presents the most optimistic hiring expectations in more than two years.

The percentage of employers planning to keep staff levels unchanged persists at unsurpassed levels, and those in seven of the 13 industry sectors surveyed expect to remain relatively stable compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. However, the first quarter 2011 outlook is nearly five percentage points below the average outlook from 2001 to 2010.

"Across nearly all geographies in the world, the confidence to do additional hiring is improving," Manpower Chairman and CEO Jeff Joerres said in a statement. "However, like the U.S., the lack of robust demand for products and services is creating a persistent level of uncertainty."

In the U.S., the survey is conducted by an independent, third-party research firm and includes a select sample of more than 18,000 U.S. employers. This sample represents the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count and all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.

SURVEY NOTES
• Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 14% anticipate an increase in staff levels in their first quarter 2011 hiring plans, while 10% expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +4%.

• Employers in 11 of the 13 industry sectors surveyed have a positive outlook for first quarter 2011: Leisure & Hospitality (+12%), Professional & Business Services (+11%), Information (+10%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+10%), Mining (+6%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+6%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+6%), Education & Health Services (+6%), Other Services (+4%), Financial Activities (+4%) and Transportation & Utilities (+2%).

• The January – March 2011 Outlook is negative in the Construction (-9%) industry, while Government (0%) hiring is expected to be flat. Employers in two industry sectors, Mining and Wholesale & Retail Trade, expect their hiring pace to decrease compared to the previous quarter, while those in three industry sectors, Information, Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality, anticipate staff levels picking up.

• Compared to one year ago, employers in all four U.S. geographic regions surveyed anticipate an increased pace of hiring. Employers in the Midwest and South have the most optimistic view, with a Net Employment Outlook of +10%. The Outlook is +9% for employers in the Northeast and +7% for those in the West.