It will be interesting

 

guest commentary by Rep. Rick Green, R-Van Buren. Green, who is term limited and will not be returning to the Arkansas General Assembly in 2011, was asked by The City Wire to provide his thoughts on the upcoming session.

On January 11, 2011, the Arkansas Legislature will convene at the State Capitol to take up bills introduced by members of both the House and the Senate Chambers. The effects of the recent mid-term elections will play out in both Chambers where bi-partisanship has largely been the rule in recent years considering the Democratic dominance in terms of members.

Fortunately, there is a couple of months cooling off period between the elections and the beginning of the 88th General Assembly. Both parties will have an opportunity to heal somewhat from the partisan election process. My advice to all incoming members: leave the campaign at home and focus on what your district would have you do as you deliberate over hundreds of bills.

A quick scan of the committee assignments reflect that House Republicans do control the Revenue and Taxation Committee with 12 of 20 members. The Senate counter-part is split 4 to 4. With Gov. Mike Beebe firm on proposing only a cut in the grocery sales tax as he did last Session it will interesting to see if other tax cut legislation is “tabled” in committee or whether it survives and goes to the floor for a vote.

I believe it will be difficult for a majority of the members to vote against tax cuts with current public scrutiny stronger than in recent years. Gov. Beebe may find himself either exercising his veto power on tax cuts or faced with reducing state services. A real key is the Republicans effectively gaining Democrat support to get tax cuts approved in both chambers. Overriding a Governor’s veto will be yet another challenge. It is rumored that Republicans are working  to “flip” some Democrats to join the Republican Party in the next few months.

The two biggest issues facing  the 88th General Assembly will be action on new highway funding following this year’s  Blue Ribbon Highway Commission’s recommendations, and Medicaid funding.

Maintaining our highway system along with new highway proposals will be necessary to grow Arkansas economically. Republicans in both chambers have the numbers to keep the Legislature from passing taxes as a resolution to this issue. It will be interesting to see how this debate plays out as the Republicans tout economic growth but are likely to avoid taxation to support this growth. The underlying truth is we can’t maintain our current highway system and  build new roads with the current revenues available.

The second issue will be the shortfall in Medicaid funding expected and the debt the State already owes the federal government. It has been reported that Texas is considering discontinuing Medicaid funding altogether. Cutting services has been tried in the past but once the wheelchairs show up at the Capitol, action and talk become two different animals.

With both thoughts just mentioned, “cuts in services” is a looming possibility should the Legislature dig in and push for economic growth through better infrastructure and tax incentives.

Look for a revival in anti-illegal immigration legislation to be introduced in an attempt to mirror Oklahoma’s laws and the recently passed laws in Arizona. It will be interesting to see if Republicans are willing to vote for tough illegal-immigration laws with the Northwest Arkansas region reaping the profits from low-paying jobs that illegals are willing to take.

I believe it worth noting that Arkansas Attorney General McDaniel recently filed a brief in federal court supporting a 2007 law that Arizona had passed that would target employers who “knowingly” hire illegal immigrants. Since Gov. Beebe and the Attorney General had been reluctant to involve Arkansas in this issue, one wonders if that has changed with the changes in Arkansas’ political landscape in the recent election.

It will be interesting to see if the new Republican numbers with 44 members in the House and 15 members in the Senate block budget appropriations as the Session winds down in late March. This is the first time in Arkansas history that Republicans have the numbers to do this without enlisting Democrat members to help.

The people of Arkansas have spoken clearly that they want our Legislators to be frugal and cut spending wherever possible. It will be just as interesting to see what the mood of the Arkansas voter will become should the Session drag into weeks beyond the 60-day Session requirement at a cost to the taxpayer.