Political shift

guest commentary by Roby Brock, owner and editor of TalkBusiness.net. Talk Business is a content partner with The City Wire.

Dr. Janine Parry, political scientist at the University of Arkansas, thinks this election year was different for Republicans, but she’s hesitant to say it’s a permanent shift in state politics.

In her post-election talk at the Clinton School of Public Service, Parry told a mixed political crowd that more empirical data will be needed to confirm the theory that this year was transformative for the GOP.

“There have been many elections that have been (called) ‘the one’ over time,” Parry said. “I think this one shows a lot stronger potential for actually fitting that bill, but I’d like to see a few more election cycles to come, as would many of you, to determine that.”

She noted that a higher number and a higher quality of Republican candidates helped boost the GOP’s success.

"For once the Republicans didn’t shoot themselves in the foot,” she said. “They put their best foot forward. They kind of let their candidates be a little centrist relative to past candidates.”

Here’s my take on how this year’s gains will play out and whether or not the GOP can add to its legislative advantages in 2012.

For starters, there will be fewer open legislative seats up for grabs in 2012 and only one Congressional seat — the Fourth District — for Democrats to defend. A quick count of Senate and House seats shows that Republicans would need another perfect storm to have landslide victories like Tuesday, but it’s certainly within reach to take their numbers above 50% in both chambers.

You have to also factor in that the national political and economic climate were strong contributors to this year’s Republican gains. Will it be there in 2012? Two years is a political eternity and I suggest that the country (and state) will go through several mood swings before we define the 2012 election variables.

I also sense that the Arkansas voter is going to be pretty intolerant of a hard partisan agenda in the state legislature. Democrats or Republicans engaging in partisan rancor are going to get penalized by voters for their actions so close to home. It’s one thing to do it in D.C. without the scrutiny of local media; it’s another to do it under the glare of Arkansas TV and radio stations, newspapers, blogs, etc.

I predict we may see a smaller, less aggressive agenda from the Governor. Members of the General Assembly will be much more selective in the items they bring forward. You won’t see a tobacco tax increase to fund major health care programs like we saw last session. Conversely, lopping off more of the food tax will be a layup. The need for consensus building will be pivotal on major issues whether they are Republican or Democratic in nature.

Expect to see both sides set each other up for wedge issue votes. The traditional "urban versus rural" legislative antagonism will be masked by the fact that Republicans hold substantial seats in fast-growing northwest Arkansas and suburban central Arkansas and Democrats are still stronger in less populated regions of the state.

What will be interesting to watch is how Democrats and Republicans respond to a crisis or critical issue in state government. For example, will there be definitive party ideology on key budget issues, highway reform, the bubbling prison overcrowding situation, or the indebted unemployment trust fund? Will Republicans call for investigations into Democratic officeholders’ business or vice-versa if mini-scandals erupt?

Circumstances like these will afford numerous opportunities to showcase how partisan — or bipartisan — our new legislative body and executive branch will be.