SEC Preview, Week 8: Tigers tussle on the Plains


story by Chris Rushing, College Sports Matchups (CSM is a content partner with The City Wire)
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As we enter the eighth week of play in the rugged Southeastern Conference, division title races could be shored up or opened even wider when the East attempts to gain a front-runner (again) while the West will have one set of Tigers reigning supreme as the top candidate to unseat Alabama football as the two-time defending division champ.

It’s gonna be a fun weekend, that’s for sure.

All that being said, let’s get to the matter at hand: No. 6 LSU football vs. No. 5 Auburn football. In a season that has been full of “most important games” for both teams, this one reigns supreme – at least until either one takes on No. 7 Alabama in the coming weeks.

LSU has been left for dead by the media several times this year. After nearly blowing a 30-14 cushion in the opener against suspension-depleted North Carolina, the Bayou Bengals (7-0, 4-0 SEC) looked vulnerable to just about everything. Teams were able to march down the field but the LSU defense held them to three or fewer points on most trips inside the red zone. West Virginia almost erased a 20-0 deficit in week 4 in Baton Rouge. We won’t go into the madness that was the Tennessee football game.

Then, after all the talk about Les Miles’ voodoo and luck, LSU went into Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and managed the clock to perfection with a couple of lucky bounces (most notably on the fake field goal). Miles and Co. commenced their sixth victory in as many tries when Jarrett Lee connected with Terrance Tolliver with six seconds left in the contest with Florida football. Suddenly, all the luck talk turned to discussions that maybe LSU was for real yet again.

Amazingly, despite earning two Bowl Championship Series national championships in the past decade (2003, 2007), this season marks the first time since 1973 that LSU has began a campaign with a 7-0 mark. Not even the great Nick Saban accomplished such a feat in Baton Rouge. You know that somewhere in the midst of all this, Miles has kept track of that meaningless stat for when he goes out to speak to all his booster clubs this offseason.

Meanwhile, on the Plains, Auburn (7-0, 4-0) had some hype heading into the season. After all, a school-record 26 seniors led an unbalanced roster filled with proven playmakers from the 2009 squad. The only true question mark on offense was whether Cameron Newton could adapt to the starting role without making the Tigers miss a beat from the record-breaking unit on display a year ago.

I’d say he’s done a pretty good job of keeping everything rolling, seeing as Newton is a Heisman Trophy front-runner and all. With just two more touchdowns, the junior college transfer quarterback will set an AU single-season scoring record, surpassing former Hesiman Trophy winner Pat Sullivan’s previous mark of 26 in 1971.

Yes, the defense has been a bit susceptible to the pass this season (currently ranked 108th nationally against aerial assaults), but the run defense has been consistent as the Tigers’ boast the country’s 15th-best rushing average allowed through seven contests.

This game boasts the league’s top defense against the top offense. Luckily for AU, LSU relies much more on the ground game with Stephan Ridley than it does in the passing offense. The visiting Tigers have put more trust into Lee with passing downs than was previously entrusted to starter Jordan Jefferson, but I’d be surprised if Miles and offensive coordinator Gary Crowton had any desire to change LSU’s identity of a run-heavy set of plays for this game.

With blitz-happy John Chavis calling the shots on defense, LSU will most likely employ a scheme used by Manny Diaz of Mississippi State in the season’s second week to limit Newton’s rushing ability and force the AU signal caller to beat them with his arm. In one of the most inane stats I’ve ever seen, Newton has been lights out under pressure – completing 70-plus percent of his attempts with a defender on his trail – but tends to loft the ball when he has plenty of time given to him by the senior-laden offensive line of Auburn.

Strength vs. strength, weakness vs. weakness. This one should go down as one of the all-time classics in a rivalry that has produced its fair share. CBS will televise from Jordan-Hare Stadium for the second time in as many weeks with Verne Lundquist, Gary Danielson and Tracy Wolfson calling the action to a national television audience.

The key to this one will be if Auburn can limit all-world returner Patrick Peterson on special teams (no one has returned a punt against AU since Sept. 18 vs. Clemson), and if Newton can keep the ball from getting in Peterson’s hands via an errant pass. I don’t think Auburn can put up 300-plus on the ground for a  fourth-straight SEC game, but I am not sure LSU can score enough to keep up in a hostile environment either.

Call it now: Auburn 27, LSU 21

• Ole Miss at No. 21 Arkansas (Fayetteville, Ark., 11:21 a.m. CT, SEC-Network)
The question that has been on everyone’s mind this week is whether Ryan Mallett will play against Houston Nutt and the Ole Miss football team.

So far, all signs are pointing to the big man being under center for Arkansas football’s first snaps of the afternoon in an important contest for both teams’ postseason hopes. Arkansas can pretty much bet it will be playing in a bowl game somewhere (my guess: Cotton), but another loss here would be the difference in a great bowl trip in Dallas or Tampa and a less-than-stellar one in Atlanta or Nashville. Ole Miss, meanwhile, is fighting for its postseason life as it enters Fayetteville with a 3-3 mark, including a division-worst 1-2 showing in SEC games.

It’s my firm belief that Nutt will beat someone the experts say he isn’t supposed to. It’s also my best guess that the best shot at accomplishing this feat falls this weekend or next vs. Auburn. Gary Brown of CollegeSportsMatchups seems to think that Bobby Petrino is nothing more than Nutt without a personality – another loss to the Right Reverend on Saturday could give credence to that proclamation.

Arkansas is better, but did it put in too much emotion against Auburn last weekend? Can the Ole Miss ground game get going to give Jeremiah Masoli his shots at a porous defense fresh off an outing where it gave up 58 points (seven of Auburn’s came on a fumble return)?

Call it now: Arkansas 35, Ole Miss 27

• No. 7 Alabama at Tennessee (Knoxville, Tenn., 7 p.m. EST, ESPN)
Has there ever been an Alabama-Tennessee game with less fanfare than this weekend’s showdown?

Sure, Tennessee football’s 2-4 (0-3 SEC) hasn’t exactly gotten the natives singing Rocky Top at the top of their lungs, but with a week off and plenty of time to scheme for a hurting Alabama football offense, one has to think that the Vols have a chance at home against the defending national champions, right?

Wrong. Bama (6-1, 3-1 SEC) may not be blowing the doors off its competition but the Tide is still very, very good. The only thing that could keep this one from being a blowout is Saban taking it easy on his good buddy Derek Dooley.

Last year, Terrence Cody had to block two field goals to preserve and ensure that UA’s 14-0 record was void of an embarrassing blemish. It won’t be that close this time.

Call it now: Alabama 24, Tennessee 6

• UAB at No. 24 Mississippi State (Starkville, Miss., 6 p.m. CT, ESPNU)
I had a coworker tell me this week that Herm Edwards has fallen in love with the Bulldogs since he’s been the commentator for just about every Mississippi State football game this fall. And, yes, you are reading that first line correctly: MSU is considered one of the country’s top 25 teams.

Not many people in college football can pull off winning in Gainesville by not attempting a pass in the second half and only scoring, but Dan Mullen is not “many people.” He supposedly told his troops in the locker room that they were going to run the ball down the Gators’ throats and if UF stopped them, the loss would be on him. Now, Mullen’s job turns to keeping the Bulldogs from laying an egg against a scrappy UAB bunch.

MSU is 5-2, 3-2 SEC and sits in fourth place in the division behind LSU, Auburn and Alabama. Another win and the Maroon and White will grace a neutral site playing field in the postseason for the first time since 2007. Saturday, they reach that goal of becoming bowl eligible.

Call it now: Mississippi State 38, UAB 10

• No. 20 South Carolina at Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tenn., 6 p.m. CT, FoxSportsNet South)
Remember those days when Florida would lose and you always felt bad for whoever had to deal with an angry Steve Spurrier the next weekend? Didn’t it always seem to be Vanderbilt football team that got the unhappy task of bearing the brutal force of a Gator squad with plenty to prove?

Well, Vandy (2-4, 1-2 SEC) finds itself in a similar position against a different school in South Carolina (4-2, 2-2 SEC) this weekend. The South Carolina football team had a time in the spotlight turn quickly to dark following a 31-28 loss to Kentucky last Saturday, the first time a UK squad has gotten the best of Spurrier in his illustrious 18-year coaching career.

Much like all those UF-Vandy matchups, I expect the Gamecocks to score a lot of points and the Commodores to combat with very few of their own.

Call it now: South Carolina 38, Vanderbilt 7

• Georgia at Kentucky (Lexington, Ky., 7:30 p.m. EST, CSS)
Thanks to Kentucky’s victory over South Carolina last weekend, both teams enter this weekend’s showdown with a shot at making Atlanta despite having three SEC losses. The loser, however, is most likely eliminated from race for the East Division title.

Just to have a shot despite opening the league with identical 0-3 records is amazing, though. Georgia (3-4, 2-3 SEC) football has somehow found itself in a favorable position for the second half of the 2010 season despite getting off to an awful 1-4 start. The questions surrounding Mark Richt’s job security have been replaced with those of “Should we drive in the day of the game or make it a complete weekend in Atlanta for the title game?”

It’s amazing what a couple of blowout wins over lowly Tennessee and Vanderbilt can do for you.

Kentucky (4-3, 1-3 SEC) football, meanwhile, is flying high after finally pushing through and gaining a victory over a league foe. The Wildcats knocked off top-10 South Carolina 31-28 in the middle of their current three-game home stand. Commonwealth Stadium has been a bit unfriendly to UGA lately, having lost there in 2006 after holding a commanding lead in the all-time series, and this UK team is very familiar with beating the Bulldogs after knocking off Richt and Co. last season in Athens.

Randall Cobb and A.J. Green each will have plenty of chances to add to their National Football League highlight reels Saturday night in the Bluegrass. Will Cobb have a few more friendly tweets following this outing? Or, will Georgia even its overall record at 4-4 and head into the game formerly known as the Cocktail Party with plenty at stake with the suddenly hapless Gators?

Call it now: Georgia 31, Kentucky 27

• Rushing’s predictions
Last week: 4-2
Overall: 47-9