Beebe lead over Keet widens

Arkansas Democratic Gov. Mike Beebe holds a 13-point advantage over his GOP rival, Jim Keet, according to the latest Talk Business Poll.

The survey, conducted Monday and Tuesday night (Sept. 27-28) among 588 likely voters, shows Beebe with 48.5% voter support to Keet’s 35%. Green Party nominee Jim Lendall pulled 1.5% of likely voters and 15% remain undecided. The poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College and has a margin of error of +/-4%.

"Our latest survey of the Governor’s race shows Mike Beebe holding steady in an anti-Democratic environment, while Jim Keet appears to have been afflicted by issues surrounding his personal and business taxes," said Talk Business executive editor Roby Brock.



In a Talk Business Poll conducted in mid-July Beebe led Keet by nine points, 49.5% to 40.5%.



The latest survey seeks to answer questions regarding Beebe’s political coattails and his handling of a state vehicle controversy, as well as Keet’s personal and business tax dealings. Only 66% of voters surveyed were aware of the state vehicle controversy. Just 41% were familiar with Keet’s tax controversies.

How likely does Gov. Mike Beebe’s endorsement of another candidate make you to support the other candidate?
43% — Very Likely
25% — Somewhat Likely
32% — No Effect

How well do you think that Gov. Mike Beebe has dealt with the issue of the use of state vehicles for personal matters?
27% — Very Well
35% — Somewhat Well (62% Well)
27% — Somewhat Poorly (38% Poorly)
11% — Very Poorly

How well do you think that Jim Keet has dealt with the issue of his personal and business taxes?
22% — Very Well
29% — Somewhat Well (51% Well)
28% — Somewhat Poorly (49% Poorly)
21% — Very Poorly

Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered the following analysis:
• As other recent polling has shown, Gov. Mike Beebe remains in a much stronger position than other Arkansas Democrats seeking office in 2010. His lead over Republican Jim Keet overall is just over 13%, 48.5%-35%.

• Beebe shows solid support across the state. Of the four congressional districts, Beebe trails only in the reliably Republican 3rd CD and there he only lags behind Keet 42-40.

• The Governor’s support is also strong demographically. He leads among all racial/ethnic groups, including holding a double digit lead among white voters who show significant resistance to Democratic candidates in other polling this cycle. Beebe also shows strong leads among men and women and with almost all age groups (the two candidates are essentially tied among 45-64 year olds).

• A key question is whether Beebe’s support is transferable to Democrats whom he endorses. In recent weeks, Beebe has been involved in fundraisers for other Democratic candidates for constitutional offices and Congress and candidates have attached themselves to Beebe in their advertising. We examined whether a Beebe endorsement has power among those who support him. In numbers that are a rare sign of hope for Arkansas Democrats in campaign 2010, over 2/3 of Beebe supporters say that his endorsement makes it very likely (43%) or somewhat likely (25%) that they would follow his lead. It’s safe to say that if Arkansas Democrats end up with success in other races in the state this year, Beebe’s coattails will get much of the credit.

POLL BACKGROUND

This poll was conducted by Talk Business Research and Hendrix College. The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 4%, was completed using IVR survey technology on September 27-28, 2010 among 588 registered Arkansas voters statewide who indicated they were "likely" to vote in the November 2, 2010 general election. Our weighting assumptions include adjustments for ethnicity and Congressional districts.


Link here for details on the survey results.