Talk Business Poll: Democratic label a ballot disadvantage

What’s in a name?

For starters, a distinct political advantage for Republicans in an election cycle featuring a strong anti-incumbent, anti-Washington mood among voters.

Talk Business and Hendrix College recently conducted two separate polls of the races for Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Treasurer of State, Auditor of State and Commissioner of State Lands.

The results showed clear advantages and disadvantages with party labels, especially when voters have no opinions of the candidates.

In one poll, candidates were identified with their party (as will be the case on the November ballot). In the other poll, candidates were listed without their party (as will be the case in almost all advertising between now and that election). The differences were striking and seem to confirm Gov. Mike Beebe’s — a Democrat — notion that much of the advantage shown for Republican candidates is driven by reactions to the two parties rather than the candidates.

"Party identification produces sizable leads for Republicans at this juncture of the general election cycle, but if you remove the party labels you get much different results with Democrats leading opponents as well as a much larger undecided voting bloc,” Talk Business executive editor Roby Brock said in this report.

Continuing, Brock noted: "Will voters make up their minds about candidates without full knowledge of their party affiliations or will they wait until Election Day and make their choices based purely on party loyalty? The results of these two polls could shape Republican and Democratic strategies in these final weeks of the campaign.”

Dr. Jay Barth, with the Hendrix College Department of Politics and International Relations, helped craft and analyze the two polls. He offered the following observations:
• In our surveys, the percentage of voters who are undecided grows immensely when the party labels are removed. The percentage of undecided voters ranges from 17.6% to 44.1% across the six races when party labels are included, but range from 42.6% to 72.1% when the labels are excluded.

• The Republican advantage in the three contests where they are fielding candidates seem clear in the results using party labels. Republicans Mark Darr, Mark Martin, and John Thurston lead their races for Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, and Land Commissioner by 17, 18, and 25 points, respectively. Martin is able to achieve the 50% mark in his race against Democratic Pulaski County Clerk Pat O’Brien.

• A starkly different picture emerges in the Democratic-Republican matchups when party labels are removed. All three Democratic candidates see their deficits turn into advantages, although they remain a long way from 50%. O’Brien goes from an 18-point deficit to a 10-point lead; Broadway goes from a 17-point disadvantage to a 5-point lead; and newcomer L.J. Bryant goes from a 25-point deficit to a 6-point lead in his race. 

• Thus, between now and the election, if these campaigns are framed as partisan battles, Republicans are strikingly advantaged. However, if the races are framed as a choice between individual candidates, Democrats have a chance to maintain their winning position in statewide balloting in the state. Let the framing battle begin.

Link here to the poll results with party identification, and link here for the poll results without party ID.