Hopeful sales

September and October retail sales of electronics and appliances are expected to grow by $739 million compared to the 2009 period, according to IBM research.

The gain represents a 5% increase, with the prediction resulting from using sophisticated algorithms and 18-years of historical data. The IBM forecast analyzes both long-term trends and seasonal peaks to provide a highly-accurate projection of industry sales.

"The forecast indicates that retailers should consider maintaining inventory levels, especially in the hot categories," Global Business Services partner Michael Haydock said in a statement. "They should also make sure that stores are staffed with skilled personnel who can assist customers with complex purchases; and continue to invest in advertising leading up to the holidays."

OTHER RESEARCH NOTES
• Products measured include TVs, cell phones, personal computers and tablet computers, radios and stereos, refrigerators, dishwashers, ovens, and other devices.

• The retail electronics and appliance market got off to a slow start in 2010 with combined January and February sales down $846 million, or 5%, from the same period in 2009.

• March, April and May recovered with an overall revenue increase of $483 million, or 2% compared with the 2009 period.

• In September and October 2009, sales were down $1.072 billion, or 6.6%, compared with the comparable months in 2008.

• In September and October 2008, retail sales of electronics and appliances totaled $16.137 billion. In the 2009 period, the total was $15.065 billion, with the 2010 forecast expecting sales of $15.804 billion.

• The IBM research noted that disposable income, as reported by the U.S. Commerce Department, is on the rise, as is the household savings rate, perhaps indicating pent-up consumer demand.