Fort Smith metro jobless rate drops below 8% (Updated)

Fort Smith’s metro area unemployment rate fell in April to 7.6%, which marked three consecutive months of declines since the rate peaked at 8.9% in January.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Wednesday (June 2), the number of unemployed in the Fort Smith metro area was 10,230 in April, up 2.1% compared April 2009 and up 76.5% over the 5,794 unemployed in April 2008.

The number of employed totaled 123,857 in April 2010, up 0.8% from the 122,762 in March 2010, but down 2.08% from the 126,494 employed in April 2009.

The relatively good news for the Fort Smith metro area is that manufacturing jobs have held steady following a decline that began in early 2006 and leveled off in late 2009. The April report shows 21,400 metro manufacturing jobs, down from the 21,500 from March 2010. The March report was the third straight month of job increases in the sector. Unfortunately, April manufacturing jobs were 3.6% fewer than in April 2009.

Fort Smith metro manufacturing employment has taken a big hit in the past decade. Employment in the sector is down 29.9% from a decade ago when January 2001 manufacturing employment stood at 30,700.

‘WEAK-JOBS RECOVERY’
All Arkansas metro areas saw a decline in their respective unemployment rates. The numbers released are preliminary and subject to revisions.

Matt DeCample, spokesman for Gov. Mike Beebe, said the numbers speak to a ”measured and steady recovery” that points to a “positive trend for Arkansas.”

Greg Kaza, economic researcher and executive director of the Arkansas Policy Foundation, said the improving metro jobless numbers may indicate the beginning of the end of the jobless recovery.

“This is consistent with the idea that the recession is over and we have gone from a jobless recovery in the second half of 2009 to a weak-jobs recovery. And as we go forward we hope that it will become a strong jobs recovery,” Kaza said.

He said the “four fundamental” metrics of economic strength are employment, production, income and manufacturing and trade sales. Kaza said  the three of the four have been positive, with employment figures finally starting to show signs of life.

Kaza has been optimistic about economic recovery for several months. He issued a report in late November 2009 saying that the deep recession that began in November 2007 likely ended in June 2009 — making it the longest recessionary period of post-World War II period and longer than the average length of recessions dating back to 1854.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, there were 32 economic “cycles” (recessions or depressions) between 1854 and 2001, with the average recession/depression lasting 17 months. However, the U.S. post-World War II economy has seen only 10 cycles, with an average length of 10 months for each recession.

The NBER, the official marker of U.S. economic cycles, takes time to make a call. It was in a December 2008 statement that the group announced that this recession began in November 2007.

NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
The jobless rate declines in all Arkansas metro areas was certainly an exception to the rule. According to the BLS report, unemployment rates were higher in April than a year earlier in 291 of the 372 metropolitan areas, lower in 73 areas, and unchanged in 8 areas. Fourteen areas recorded jobless rates of at least 15%, while 8 areas registered rates below 5%.

Arkansas’ unemployment rate was 7.8% in April, unchanged from March and slightly higher than the 7.1% in April 2009. The Oklahoma unemployment rate in April was 6.6%, unchanged from March and up from the 6.1% in April 2009.

The U.S. jobless rate was 9.9% in April, up from 9.7% in March. The U.S. jobless rate in April 2009 was 8.9%.

• ARKANSAS METRO AREAS
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers
April 2010: 6%
April 2009: 5.4%
March 2010: 6.6%

Fort Smith
April 2010: 7.6%
April 2009: 7.3%
March 2010: 8.3%

Hot Springs
April 2010: 7.7%
April 2009: 6.4%
March 2010: 8.3%

Jonesboro
April 2010: 7.1%
April 2009: 6.3%
March 2010: 7.6%

Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway
April 2010: 6.6%
April 2009: 5.7%
March 2010: 7.2%

Memphis-West Memphis
April 2010: 10.4%
April 2009: 9.3%
March 2010: 10.6%

Pine Bluff
April 2010: 9.2%
April 2009: 8.2%
March 2010: 9.9%

Texarkana
April 2010: 7.4%
April 2009: 5.3%
March 2010: 7.6%

• FORT SMITH METRO AREA HISTORY
Past annual average unemployment rates
2009: 7.9%
2008: 4.8%
2007: 5.3%
2006: 4.9%
2005: 4.5%
2004: 5.2%
2003: 5.5%
2002: 5%
2001: 4.2%
2000: 3.7%