NRF: Declining import volumes expected to continue in 2026

Export cargo volumes at major U.S. ports are lower from a year ago as 2025 comes to an end, and expectations for 2026 are lower, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The latest report tracked 2.07 million containers handled by U.S. ports in October, down 1.8% from September and 7.9% lower than a year ago. While ports have not released November info, Global Port Tracker estimates total cargo volumes were 1.91 million containers, down 11.6% from the same month last year. December is forecast at 1.86 million containers, down 12.7% year over year.

Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president of supply chains, said November and December are traditionally slow, but this year the decrease will be lower because retailers bought ahead of tariff concerns, which drove summer cargo volumes higher than normal.

“Stores are stocked up and ready for a record holiday season, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in 2026 with trade policy,” said Gold. “Regardless of what develops, retailers will adjust their supply chains accordingly and strive to ensure that consumers have affordable options when they shop.”

The Trump administration recently reduced tariffs on some food products, but the future of other tariffs imposed by Trump face a legal challenge in the U.S. Supreme Court. Even if the tariffs are struck down, the administration is likely to seek to reinstate them under other trade authorities, Gold said.

The effect of rising tariffs on global trade is unlikely to end soon, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

“We are seeing the results of the tariffs in weakening cargo demand going forward from the fourth quarter of this year and likely into the first half of next year,” said Hackett. “Container shipping rates are already declining on both coasts due to less need for cargo space for goods from both Asia and Europe.”

The developments come as NRF is forecasting record holiday sales of $1 trillion for the first time, up between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024.

fPorts handled 12.53 million containers in the first half of 2025, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.2 million containers, down 1.4% from 25.5 million in 2024.

Hackett said cargo is expected to see its first month-over-month increase in six months in January, which is forecast at 2 million containers, but volume would still be down 10.3% year over year. February is forecast at 1.86 million container units, down 8.5% year over year; March at 1.79 million containers, down 16.8%, and April at 1.97 million containers, down 10.9%.