Nov. 21 a deadline to watch in government shutdown politics

Our D.C. Edition guest this week was David Olive, a principal with Washington D.C.-based Catalyst Partners, a government relations firm that primarily focuses on homeland security. He was the chief of staff to then-U.S. Rep. Asa Hutchinson and has nearly four decades of experience in state and federal politics.

As far away as it is, Olive says Nov. 21 is a date to watch for a breakthrough on the federal government shutdown. Republicans and Democrats seem entrenched in their positions and a compromise doesn’t look possible.

“One side is going to have to capitulate and right now that does not look to be a quick decision. So the current over and under is somewhere around November the 21st when the House clean CR that is still languishing in the Senate expires and that will require the House to come back in. Whether they start over or reenact the CR, I think remains to be seen,” he said.

Another factor that could trigger earlier action is when Americans start receiving expected health insurance premium increases. Olive said, for now, Republicans and the White House aren’t considering that a political liability.

“The White House position is the increase in health insurance subsidies was the result of Democratic votes during COVID. They voted twice with President Biden’s approach to putting a time limit on it. And they see no reason – in the language of Mr. Blair, the White House Congressional legislative point man – to continue to give subsidies to insurance companies, which is the way the White House is currently describing it,” said Olive.

“So while that will affect a lot of people, not the least of which is one of President Trump’s strongest supporters, Marjorie Taylor Greene in the House who says it will affect her constituency and her family, the sense is that the insurance premium’s increase will not move the needle based on the current culture,” he added.

Olive indicated that there is a third potential dynamic that could affect the shutdown situation: SNAP benefits.

“The SNAP program provides significant benefits to a large number of people who live in red states. And with the midterm elections coming up, in fact with states like Virginia that hold a governor’s election in just 10 days, the SNAP benefits could be actually more of a game changer than the insurance premiums,” he said.

Olive does not think Senate Republicans will break with the 60-vote threshold in order to break the impasse.

“Number one, historically, the Senate was created by the founding fathers to be the body of Congress that took the heat out of a political immediacy, whereas a simple majority is required in the House. They wanted the Senate to be far more deliberative and take a longer view of how the legislative process worked and, frankly, to slow down the train of how quickly things could move unless there were more than a simple majority,” noted Olive.

“The other reason that I would tell you that it probably won’t change is because both parties understand that the political pendulum swings and the benefit of having a 60-vote requirement protects minority viewpoints in the Senate at least where it does not protect them on the House side,” he said. “So anything that would dramatically change the ability of a minority party to at least have some input into the legislative process, I think will be very, very difficult to get enacted.”

You can listen to Olive’s full interview at this link.