The incumbent and the newbie

U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., knew he’d draw a Democratic opponent in his 2026 reelection bid. He might not have been counting on a farmer from Newport.

Hallie Shoffner, a sixth generation farmer from the region has officially thrown her hat in the Senate race and based on her early rhetoric, she will have some things to say that will tap into the populist appeal driving state and national politics.

At a recent gathering of the England Area Democrats in Lonoke County, Shoffner, who is running as a Democrat, told the partisan crowd that Democrats messed up their opportunity to govern years ago, that Republicans are failing now, and that it is time for a common sense, regular person to go to Washington to try to fix our nation’s problems.

“The Democratic Party has ignored places like Arkansas, and so we kicked them out, as we should have,” she said. “We got tired of Ivy League-educated politicians that dug themselves up in D.C., and pushed real Arkansans to the back of the line. The problem is, is that Tom Cotton turned around and did exactly the same thing, and we are no better off for it. I think Arkansans now are hungry for real representation, for somebody who comes to this state and sits down at the table with them and opens their ears to listen.”

Shoffner is tapping into the prevalent attitudes that exist with voters right now who are not happy with either party. National polling suggests that by a 15-17 point margin, people think the country is headed in the wrong direction. Voters are worried about inflation, health care, jobs, and immigration by double-digit margins. Overall, Trump, Vance, GOP leaders in Congress and the administration are in strong negative territory. Democrats fare no better.

To further underscore the divisions in this country, if you’re Republican you are 90% likely to think the country is headed in the right direction. By a 90% margin, Democratic voters think the country is in a ditch. I always turn to independent voters in political polling to get a sense of what regular, nonpartisan people believe.

In poll after poll, there is consistently a 15% gap expressing pessimism over optimism for the country, its direction and key issues.

Shoffner is speaking to this crowd. Her gamble is that she’ll hold most of the Democrats who could never support Cotton and she’ll pick up enough independents to be competitive. 

But Cotton is a shrewd politician and he’s loaded with cash, thanks to years of courting high-dollar contributors and rising in Republican circles. He’ll use that money to spin his record of achievement and to define Shoffner in a negative light if she starts gaining traction. For now, his campaign is cool to even acknowledging her presence and that will likely persist for months.

I do see signs that Cotton is taking nothing for granted. He is out early with his reelection declaration. He has been raising money early to build up his war chest. And he’s been making the local news circuit more frequently than in recent years.

This is not necessarily an indication that he believes he has a weakness and Shoffner may find his Achilles’ heel. To me, Cotton’s current strategy of not taking anything for granted is more of a signal that he recognizes voters are fragile and fickle in their choices right now. With Trump leading the chaos caucus daily, Cotton is most likely staking out his positions and visibility in a proactive way to avoid being defined by an opponent. 

For years, he and his GOP colleagues have been able to run against Biden and the Democrats. While they still have Democrats as a foil, the party of Jefferson and Jackson (and Clinton and Obama) is in disarray right now and hasn’t found its messaging footing.

Lucky for Cotton because Republicans are in charge and will be blamed for the wrong directions the country may head or be perceived as heading. Shoffner knows she can’t win just being a Democrat, so she’s offering something else. 

We’ll have to wait and see if voters are hungry for a new solution or if they will view this race as a binary choice, which has been the case for the last decade.

Editor’s note: Roby Brock is the editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics. He hosts Talk Business & Politics and Capitol View and a radio program three times a week on KASU.