Walmart expected to post revenue gain, weaker income in quarterly report

Walmart is expected to report a first-quarter revenue gain of around 2.5%  on Thursday (May 15), but analysts caution that net income could fall 3.3% from a year ago. Walmart’s fiscal first quarter 2026 began on Feb. 1 and ended April 30.

The retail giant is expected to report per share net income of 58 cents, down 2 cents from a year ago. Net income should top $4.64 billion, before one-time charges expected for liability claims and losses on foreign investments.

Most market watchers see Walmart as a winner if the Trump Administration tariffs go into effect with China and other Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam and Taiwan. Corey Tarlowe, a retail analyst at Jefferies, is bullish on Walmart but said margins in grocery remain lower than general merchandise and consumers are buying more must-have food and consumables and are more choosy about non-discretionary spending.

“As the nation’s largest grocer, Walmart is in a strong position and its robust balance sheet provides the company more ability to withstand tariff pressures,” Tarlowe noted.
.
He said Walmart did not provide earnings guidance for the quarter or the year during a recent analyst conference in Dallas. Tarlowe expects the first quarter results will provide clarity into how much Walmart is being impacted by tariffs and insights into how consumers are spending overall. Tarlowe’s stock price target is $120 per share.

Retail sales were up in April in seven of nine categories, with consumers buying items subject to proposed tariffs ahead of them being imposed, according to the National Retail Federation. NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said consumers were spending on smaller items they might have purchased later without tariffs. This could signal weaker sales in May into Walmart’s second quarter for fiscal 2026.

Dana Telsey of Telsey Retail Advisors said the retail economy is “fragile” at best. She said consumers are spending on essentials and will continue to shop Walmart, Sam’s Club and Costco as they look to stretch the dollars.

Morgan Stanley analysts continue to like Walmart in these uncertain times, noting the retailer is “the best positioned to navigate the challenges given its scale, supply chain advantages, category mix and price gaps.” The investment house recently reaffirmed its “buy” position and held its price target at $115. Simeon Gutman at Morgan Stanley said Walmart’s now-profitable U.S. e-commerce business, a growing advertising business and the use of more automation are long-term growth drivers for Walmart amid shorter-term challenges.

Equity analysts at Oppenheimer see Walmart positioned to take advantage of the weakness in the broader market. While the first quarter results could be slightly subdued, they remain bullish with a “buy” rating, noting any stock weakness would likely be short-lived.

Analysts expect Walmart’s U.S. segment to show sales revenue growth of around 4%, with comp sales ranging from 3.5% to 4%. Online sales are expected to grow 10% from a year ago. Sam’s Club is expected to post comp sales growth of 4.25% with membership revenue gains of around 6% year over year. Internationally, Walmart is expected to see sales growth in Mexico and Central America and India ,with the Sam’s Club business in China also remaining strong.

Walmart shares (NYSE: WMT) have traded between $59.44 and $105.30 over the past 52 weeks. Shares closed Monday at $96.79, up 7 cents on the day. The year-to-date share price is up 6.95% and given the company’s price-to-earnings ratio of 40, the stock is seen as a bit pricy among traditional staple stocks.