NRF reports that March retail sales rose 4.75%

Consumers spent 4.75% more on retail purchases in March compared to a year ago. Total sales excluded autos and fuel and were compiled by Affinity Solutions for the National Retail Federation (NRF). Total sales were up 0.6% from the prior month.

“Retail sales increased in March but only moderately, and the spending came before the president’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “The pullback we’ve seen the past few months comes despite strong economic fundamentals. A major factor appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. March’s increase is partly the result of stocking up to get ahead of tariffs. With the economic outlook unclear and the situation fluid, consumer sentiment is weakening, and many consumers are shifting disposable income into savings.”

NRF said total sales were up 4.52% year over year for the first three months of 2025. Core sales that exclude restaurant receipts rose 5.07% in March from a year ago, up from a 4.11% gain in February. Core sales rose 4.96% for the first three months of 2025, NRF reports.

The uncertainty in tariffs has had some consumers buying ahead for items like clothing and household appliances in early March because they feared higher prices later from tariffs, according to a report from Prosper Insights and Analytics on behalf of NRF.

Consumer sentiment also trended lower in April amid trade concerns and continued inflation. NRF forecast sales to grow modestly this year ranging between 2.7% and 3.7%, within the pre-pandemic range between 2010 and 2019.

“Any way you look at it, a lot is riding on the consumer,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “While we do expect slower growth, consumer fundamentals remain intact, supported by low unemployment, slower but steady income growth, and solid household finances. Consumer spending is not unraveling.”

Kleinhenz said even though consumer confidence is declining, due largely to lingering inflation and anxiety over tariffs, that doesn’t mean there will be an immediate drop in consumer spending as March sales indicated.

March sales were up across the board on a yearly basis in the recent NRF Retail Monitor report released April 14. These sales results were gleaned from actual consumer transactions during the month using debit and credit cards and do not need to be updated later. The year-over-year category results from March are listed below.

• Digital sales, up 27.62%
• General merchandise, up 7.62%
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and books, up 6.63%
• Electronics and appliances, up 5.94%
• Health and personal care, up 5.39%
• Grocery and beverage, up 3.05%
• Clothing and accessories, up 2.37%
• Furniture and home furnishings, up 1.81%
• Building and garden supplies, up 0.78%