NRF report shows November retail sales up 2.35%

The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports total sales for goods (excluding automobiles and fuel) increased 2.35% in November, according to credit and debit card purchases compiled by Affinity Solutions for the NRF.

The modest growth was on top of 4.13% gains reported in October and also factored in the lack of Cyber Monday sales which will be included in the December data this year, because of the late Thanksgiving date.

“Year-over-year gains were solid even as retail prices in many categories are lower this year, showing consumers are buying more merchandise as the economy grows. We remain confident in our holiday forecast for growth between 2.5% and 3.5% over last year,” said NRF CEO Matthew Shay.

Total sales were up 2.15% through the first 11 months of the year. Core sales, that also exclude restaurants, were up 1.43% from a year ago, trailing the 4.59% year-over-year gains reported in October.

The Retail Monitor report comes on the heels of reports of weak in-store traffic over the Thanksgiving weekend, which are typically some of the largest shopping days of the season. A new report from data analytics firm pass_by indicates holiday foot traffic is down 5.4% from a year ago for the holiday shopping season.

“In early December, foot traffic lagged well behind 2023 levels – down over 20% on the first few days. These declines lessened as time wore on, settling in the single-digit range by mid-December. This progression hints that consumers are biding their time, potentially waiting for deals, better product availability, or simply engaging in more thoughtful selection as they near the holiday finish line,” said James Ewen, vice president of marketing at pass_by.

Ewen said the the shift suggests a holiday retail landscape where timing and sentiment trump tradition. As shoppers hold off on early-season deals and gravitate toward simpler, more personal gifts, retailers need to adapt – offering last-minute convenience, meaningful assortments, and targeted promotions that reflect consumers’ desire for authenticity and emotional resonance.

“Shoppers are rewriting the holiday playbook – ditching the old reliance on early-season doorbusters and turning to last-minute, personal gifts. They’re seeking items that feel meaningful and convenient, whether that’s a favorite book, a tailored shirt, or a bottle of something special to toast the season, Ewen added.

NRF reports November sales were up in five of nine categories on a yearly basis, led by strong online traffic. Online sales rose 21.48% year over year and were up 1.32% over October. Grocery sales were up 5.31% from a year ago, and do not factor in food inflation. Clothing and accessory sales increased 2.01% from a year ago, helped by promotions and deflationary pressures.

General merchandise, also a category that has experienced lower prices from a year ago, saw sales increase 2.01% over the period. Health and personal care sales increased 1.64% from a year ago, and were flat from October levels.

Four categories experienced lower year over years sales last month: Furniture and home furnishings were down 1.15%; building and garden supply sales fell 2.93%; electronics and appliance sales declined 7.28% and sporting goods, hobby, music and books sales fell 7.39%, NRF reports.

The U.S. Census Bureau will report November retail sales later this month.