Traditional Thanksgiving meal cost down 5% from 2023

Families celebrating Thanksgiving with a traditional turkey dinner could pay about 5% less than a year ago, with the cost averaging $58.50 for a group of 10. The 2024 estimated cost is below the $61.17 in 2023, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF).

A Thanksgiving meal is still 19% more expensive than in 2019 as food inflation has remained sticky since the pandemic. Turkey prices are cheaper this year with supply outpacing demand. The average price for a 16-pound turkey is $25.67, about 6% cheaper than a year ago. Several retailers discounted turkey prices since the survey was completed the first week of November.

“The turkey is traditionally the main attraction on the Thanksgiving table and is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” said AFBF Economist Bernt Nelson. “The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal.”

The shopping list for the AFBF informal survey includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream, all in quantities sufficient to serve a gathering of 10.

Most ingredients in the survey saw a decline in prices, including fresh vegetables. The drop in prices reflect price volatility in crops this year, Nelson said. The cost of whole milk dropped more than 14%. Favorable weather contributed to the decline in milk pricing. It is important to note, however, that milk prices vary between U.S. regions.

Dinner rolls and cubed stuffing saw an 8% increase because higher labor costs, among other drivers, are increasing the cost of processed food. Cranberry prices increased almost 12% year-over-year. In 2023, cranberries had the second largest decrease in price of any products in the basket at 18%. The increase this year puts cranberry prices closer to historic norms and, excluding last year, is the least expensive year since 2015.

In recognition of changes in Thanksgiving dinner traditions, the AFBF price survey also includes boneless ham, Russet potatoes and frozen green beans. Adding these foods to the classic Thanksgiving menu increased the overall cost by $19.26, to $77.34.

Some retailers are offering meal deals which is one way families can save while supplies last. Aldi advertised a meal of 10 costing $47. That included Butterball turkey, gravy, rolls, mac & cheese, stuffing and ingredients for cranberry sauce, mashed potatoes, sweet potato casserole, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie.

Target’s meal deal for 4 costs $20 and includes frozen turkey, potatoes, green beans, cream of mushroom soup, cranberry sauce, stuffing mix and turkey gravy. No dessert is included in this deal. Walmart is offering a Thanksgiving meal for eight costing under $51. The meal features 29 items, including a whole turkey, sides and desserts.

Pew Research reports that 91% of Americans will celebrate Thanksgiving this year, with 74% planning to have Thanksgiving dinner with other people. Large gatherings are expected by 26% of the respondents who said they will celebrate with more than 10 people. The same number of people (26%) plan to celebrate with six to 10 other people.

One-third of respondents plan to have dinner at home, and 39% plan to go to someone else’s home. Just 3% plan to go to a restaurant or attend a public dinner. Among those families having Thanksgiving dinner away from home, 89% plan to drive to their destination with the majority being within two hours away. Just 2% of Americans expect to fly this year to their Thanksgiving destination.