NRF: Retail sales rise 4.13% in October from year ago

Consumer spending bounced back in October lifting retail sales, excluding automobiles and fuel, up 0.74% over September and 4.13% higher than a year ago, according to the National Retail Federation Retail Monitor report released Tuesday (Nov. 12).

Core retail sales that also exclude restaurants were up 0.83% over the prior month and 4.59% from a year ago. The Retail Monitor report is compiled by Affinity Solutions for the trade group and CNBC and uses receipts from thousands of U.S. retailers. The report differs from the U.S. Census Bureau report that uses survey data and is released later in the month.

“Healthy spending resumed in October as consumers continued to benefit from this year’s job gains and higher wages,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the report. “Inflation is mostly limited to services at this point and prices for some retail goods are actually falling. October sales have set the stage for a good start to the holiday shopping season.”

Reasons for the October gain, according to the trade group, include geopolitical tensions in September, the brief port strike and the end of student loan relief programs.

September sales increased only 0.94% from a year ago. While there is still some caution among consumers, NRF has said it expects spending to normalize in November and December and rising an average of 3% per household, or up $902.

Circana reports more than 80% of holiday shoppers plan to shop online this year, but fewer will shop exclusively online, creating an opportunity for brick-and-mortar. The data firm said consumers are careful about discretionary spending and looking for value, convenience and top-notch experiences regardless of the mode they choose to shop.

Core retail sales rose 2.42% in the first 10 months of this year, behind higher sales of the past four years. October sales were up in seven out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, clothing and accessories stores and health and personal care stores.

Following are the numbers on key categories through October compared to the same period in 2023.
• Online and other non-store sales, up 19.38%
• Clothing and accessories sales, up 8.56%
• Health and personal care sales, up 8.35%
• General merchandise sales, up 5.51%
• Grocery and beverage sales, up 3.76%
• Building and garden supply sales, up 3.12%
• Furniture and home furnishings sales, up 1.87%
• Electronics and appliance sales, down 0.64%
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book sales, down 1.23%