NRF: Retail imports remain strong, estimated 12.9% growth in September

The National Retail Federation (NRF) in concert with Hackett Associates projects September freight at the nation’s major ports to be up 12.9% compared to a year ago with an estimated 2.29 million containers.

Imports at the nation’s major container ports are busier this fall handling elevated freight levels after three-day shutdown at 14 ports from Maine to Houston, Texas. Members of the International Longshoremen’s Association went on strike at East and Gulf Coast container ports on Oct. 1 after their contract with the U.S. Maritime Alliance expired. After 3 days a tentative agreement was reached on a wage increase and a short-term contract extension.

“It was a huge relief for retailers, their customers, and the nation’s economy that the strike was short-lived,” noted NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold. “It will take the affected ports a couple of weeks to recover, but we can rest assured that all ports across the country will be working hard to meet demand, and no impact on the holiday shopping season is expected. The strike wasn’t without impacts – retailers who brought in cargo early or shifted delivery to the West Coast face added warehousing and transportation costs. But the priority now is for both parties to negotiate in good faith and reach a long-term contract before the short-term extension ends in mid-January. We don’t want to face a disruption like this all over again.”

NRF reports August U.S. ports handled 2.34 million containers, up 19.3% from a year ago. Ports handled unusually large volumes of cargo beginning this spring as importers brought in goods early because of the potential for a strike and shifted a number of vessels to the West Coast, where dockworkers are represented by a different union.

“The surge in imports over the past few months has clearly been the result of contingency imports by wholesalers, retailers and industrial companies in anticipation of the East and Gulf Coast port strike rather than a sudden increase in demand,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett. “We may see some short-term congestion on the West Coast but nothing significant, and East Coast delays should be limited.”

October imports are forecast at 2.12 million containers, up 3.1% year over year. November is forecast at 1.91 million containers, up 0.9% year over year, and December at 1.88 million containers, up 0.2%. That would bring 2024 to 24.9 million containers, up 12.1% from 2023.

The import numbers come as NRF is forecasting that 2024 core retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants – will grow between 2.5% to 3.5% over 2023.