Poll: Trump has commanding lead over Harris in Arkansas

Having won over 60% of the vote in Arkansas in his two previous Presidential general elections, it should be no surprise that former President Donald Trump has a commanding lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 race.

A new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll shows Trump, the GOP nominee, leading Harris, the Democratic nominee, by a 55-40% margin.

The survey, conducted on Sept. 5-6, 2024, collected opinions from 696 likely Arkansas voters statewide and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6%. Respondents were asked:

If the election for U.S. President were today, which of the following candidates would you vote for?

55% Donald J. Trump (R)
40% Kamala D. Harris (D)
1% Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (I)
1% Chase Oliver (L)
0% Jill Stein (G)
2% Undecided
1% Another Candidate

“Donald Trump has been the leading choice of Arkansas voters in the past two election cycles,” said Roby Brock, Talk Business & Politics Editor-in-Chief. “With the Republican Party’s dominance in Arkansas and Trump’s stronghold on the GOP, this result is quite consistent with historical performance.”

ANALYSIS
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the construction and analysis of its polls.

Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, is active in Democratic Party politics and helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:

“Considering the track record of Donald Trump as a vote-getter in Arkansas, it is no surprise that he appears on track to win the state’s electoral votes for the third consecutive election. Still, the results of our baseline survey for the fall campaign show that Vice President Kamala Harris may run slightly better than Hillary Rodham Clinton, in 2016, or Joe Biden, in 2020. This could have ramifications for down ticket elections, especially if Harris’s relative improvement compared to her Democratic predecessors are concentrated in the parts of the state where competitive state legislative races are playing out.

“Partisan voters are solid for both candidates with well over nine in ten Democratic and Republican voters supporting their party’s standard bearer. The fact that there are simply more GOP identifiers in Arkansas, along with Trump’s 50-42% lead with Independents, leads to the former President’s solid lead in the state.

“Geographically, Harris leads in the Second (Central Arkansas) and Third (Northwest Arkansas) Congressional districts with slight majorities in each. However, approximately two in three voters in the more rural First and Fourth Congressional Districts support Trump. If Harris continues to show support in Northwest Arkansas across the campaign it could have significant ramifications for the dynamics of the state’s politics moving forward.

“In addition to an urban/suburban vs. rural gap, there is also a healthy education gap with Harris leading 53%-41.5% among voters who are college graduates while Trump leads 63%-32% among those without a college degree. Harris has solidified about three in four Black voters in the state, but Trump has majorities of the voters from other racial groups.

“Finally, a gender gap that is smaller than that shown across the nation is also indicated; Trump gains the support of a health majority of men (58%) while only a slight majority (52%) of women support Trump in Arkansas.”

Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, also helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:

“It’s no surprise that former President Donald Trump is leading in the race for President in Arkansas and his margin of victory will likely grow beyond the 15% gap shown in this poll.  Vice President Kamala Harris receives 40% of the vote in this survey, a threshold that would exceed the 35% obtained by President Joe Biden in 2020 if it were to hold.

“Trump leads Harris handily with all age groups except those 30-44, where she holds a slim majority (53%). Republican and Democratic voters prefer their party’s candidate nearly universally, while independents favor Trump by 8-percentage points.

“The educational achievement gap that we’ve seen in prior years continues to hold true in this survey as Trump holds a 30-percentage point lead with voters without a four-year college degree, while Harris leads by 12-percentage points with college degree holders.”

METHODOLOGY
The survey of 696 likely Arkansas voters was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2024 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6%.

Age
5.5% 18-29
18.5% 30-44
37% 45-64
39% 65 or older

Ethnicity (weighted)
11% African American/Black
84.5% Caucasian/White
0.5% Asian American
1% Hispanic/Latino
3% Other (Including mixed races)

Party ID
27% Democrat
29% Independent
40% Republican
4% Something Else

Education (weighted)
37% Yes
63% No

Gender (weighted)
48% Male
51% Female
1% Other

Congressional District (weighted)
25% CD1
25% CD2
25% CD3
25% CD4

Responses were collected via SMS by phone. The poll is slightly weighted to account for key demographics including ethnicity, education, and gender.

All media outlets are welcome to reprint, reproduce, or rebroadcast information from this poll with proper attribution to Talk Business & Politics and Hendrix College. A link back to this specific story is also required for any digital or online usage by other media outlets.

For interviews, contact Talk Business & Politics Roby Brock by email at [email protected].