Poll: Arkansas ballot issue support ranges

A new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll shows that three issues that may appear on the November ballot have chances of passage ranging from certain to possible.

The new TB&P-Hendrix survey, now in its 15th year and conducted on Sept. 5-6, 2024, collected opinions from 696 likely Arkansas voters statewide and has a margin of error of +/- 4.6%.

Voters were asked about Issue 1, a legislative-referred proposal that would expand lottery scholarships; Issue 2, an amendment proposal affecting a Pope County casino and future casino licenses; and Issue 3, which would expand existing medical marijuana laws. Issues 2 and 3 are still in pending litigation at the Arkansas Supreme Court. Respondents were asked:

Q: Issue 1 is a referred constitutional amendment from the Arkansas General Assembly that would expand the use of lottery proceeds so that they can be used to fund scholarships for Arkansas citizens enrolled in vocational- technical schools and technical institutes. If the election were held today, would you vote for or against Issue 1?

86% For
5% Against
9% Undecided

Q: Issue 2 is a constitutional amendment that would require local voter approval in a countywide election for any future casino licenses while also repealing the state’s authority to issue a casino license in Pope County and revoking the existing casino license that has been issued in Pope County. If the election were being held today, would you vote for or against this constitutional amendment?

42% For
28% Against
30% Undecided

Q: Issue 3 is the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Amendment of 2024. It would expand access to medical marijuana by qualified patients would allow physician assistants, nurse practitioners, and pharmacists to certify patients, expand the list of qualifying medical conditions, allow non- Arkansas residents to apply for and receive patient registry cards, allow patient assessments for eligibility through telemedicine, and allow medical marijuana patients to grow a limited amount of marijuana. If federal law changes to remove marijuana from the schedule of controlled substances, it would also allow adults to possess up to one ounce of marijuana. If the election were being held today, would you vote for or against this constitutional amendment?

54% For
35.5% Against
10.5% Undecided

ANALYSIS
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the construction and analysis of its polls.

Dr. Jay Barth, emeritus professor of politics at Hendrix College, is active in Democratic Party politics and helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:

“We know that voters will consider one ballot measure in November. As is often the case in Arkansas, there is litigation underway on other measures keeping them in limbo in the final weeks of the campaign. Issue 1, put before Arkansas voters by the General Assembly, is certain to be voted on in November. Our survey shows it is also certain to be ratified. This measure that would allow lottery scholarship dollars to be used for vocational or technical programs by students in addition to their current usage for four-year and two-year degree programs in the state. Across the board, all demographic, geographic, and political groups support Issue 1 with more than eight in ten voters in each key voter group expressing support for the amendment.

“The other two ballot measures are both less certain to be on the final ballot in the state and less certain to pass if they are. However, both Issue 2 and Issue 3 have more supporters than opponents at this stage.

“Issue 2 would overturn a provision of Amendment 100 to the Arkansas Constitution allowing a casino license to be issued in Pope County in the Arkansas River Valley. It would also require majority votes by the voters in a county before any future casinos are licensed in the state. While just over 40% of voters express their support for the measure in this survey, its outcome remains in doubt because undecided voters tend to either vote no on ballot measures or skip them altogether. For the stretch run of the campaign, the well-funded campaigns for and against Issue 2 will determine the outcome through their ability to successfully frame the amendment for the state’s voters. Interestingly, on Issue 2, our survey shows little variance across subgroups of voters in the poll’s crosstabs.

“Finally, Issue 3 would expand the medical marijuana program in the state in various ways—from the number of conditions that create eligibility for the program to the medical professionals who can evaluate patients for approval to the creation of a limited grow-your-own program. Thus, a vote on Issue 3 (also in doubt because of ongoing litigation) is something of a referendum on the general concept of medical marijuana in place since a 2016 vote by the people. A majority of the respondents in our survey do express support for Issue 3, suggesting a well-funded campaign will be necessary to change the outcome. Medical marijuana expansion is particularly popular among the state’s younger voters, among those with college degrees, among voters of color, and among voters who live in urban/suburban areas. Ratification of Issue 3 would, it seems, move Arkansas voters one step closer to full legalization of recreational marijuana in the state.”

Robert Coon, managing partner with Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, also helped craft and analyze the latest poll. He offered this analysis of the poll results:

“Issue 1 has widespread support among Arkansas general election voters, with 86% indicating they will vote for the proposal in November. Views on this proposal are consistent by age, race, party, education level, and gender.

“41% of Arkansas voters indicated they would vote for Issue 2, with 29% voting against and 30% unsure. Support for Issue 2 is highest among voters 45-64 (47%). Black voters are opposed to Issue 2 by 3 percentage points (44%), while White voters support it by 15% (41%). Democrats are currently split on the issue (37%-35%) while Independents and Republicans support it at similar levels (42%). Issue 2 is expected to be one of the highest spending campaigns in Arkansas this cycle and will be hotly contested as both campaigns battle for the large number of undecideds.

“If voted on today, Issue 3 would pass, as a majority (54%) of voters surveyed indicated they would support it. Support is largely being driven by Democrats (78%) and Independents (61%), while a slim majority of Republicans oppose it (51%). Along age lines, support is the highest among the youngest voters, and falls progressively among higher age categories, yet still maintains notable support among older voters.”

Editor’s note: Robert Coon’s firm provides services for Cherokee Nation, the holder of the Pope County casino license. This was also disclosed in his Sunday TV interview.

METHODOLOGY
For more details on the poll’s methodology, including a breakdown of voters demographically, click here.

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